摘要
为应对外部环境不确定性带来的新能源汽车供应链中断风险,弥补现有研究对不同供应链结构下中断风险管理全过程系统性分析的不足,按照“风险识别—风险评估—风险控制”的逻辑,聚焦新能源汽车供应链中断风险管理的全过程,通过访谈调研、案例分析和文献研究,提炼了影响管理效果的7个关键因素,基于风险数量和风险关联性,通过构建不同环境下的多主体仿真模型,深入剖析这些关键因素对新能源汽车供应链风险管理机制的动态影响。研究发现:风险识别能力的提升显著降低了风险,且网状供应链在风险数量较少的情境下优势更加明显;风险态度的增强导致风险波动上升,且在网状供应链下更显著;风险管理力度的增强导致风险影响值轻微波动上升;从众效应程度增强导致风险呈缓慢波动上升趋势,且在少风险环境中网状供应链风险影响整体较低,而多风险环境下高风险关联度会加快链式风险传播并增强网状风险交互。基于新能源汽车供应链的结构异质性特点,提出了针对性的风险治理建议:供应链中的企业应结合具体情境合理配置资源,在低风险环境中发挥网状供应链的韧性优势;同时,在多风险环境下,应强化供应链风险的监测与隔离,提升关键节点的响应能力,并防范从众决策带来的风险。
To address the risk of supply chain disruptions in the new energy vehicle(NEV)industry caused by increasing external environmental uncertainties,and to fill the gap in existing research regarding the systematic analysis of disruption risk management across different supply chain structures,this paper adopts a"risk identification-risk assessment-risk control"framework.Focusing on the entire process of managing supply chain disruption risks in the NEV sector,the study employs interviews,case analyses,and literature reviews to identify seven key factors influencing management effectiveness.Based on the number of risks and their interdependencies,multi-agent simulation models are constructed under various environmental scenarios to examine in depth the dynamic impacts of these key factors on the risk management mechanisms of the new energy vehicle supply chain.The study finds that the improvement of risk identification ability significantly reduces the risk,and the advantages of mesh supply chain are more obvious in low-risk settings.An increase in the propensity to pursue risk leads to a rise in risk volatility,which is more significant under the mesh supply chain.An increase in the intensity of risk management leads to a slight upward fluctuation in the risk impact value.The increasing degree of herd behavior leads to a gradual fluctuating rise in risk levels.In lowrisk environments,the overall risk impact of mesh supply chains is relatively lower,while in high-risk environments,high connectivity accelerates risk propagation in chain supply chains and amplifies risk interactions within mesh supply chains.Based on the structural heterogeneity characteristics of the new energy vehicle supply chain,this study puts forward targeted risk governance recommendations:enterprises should allocate resources appropriately according to structure and context,leverage the resilience advantages of mesh structures in low-risk environments;meanwhile,in high-risk environments,strengthen supply chain risk monitoring and isolation,enhance the responsiveness of key nodes,and prevent risks arising from herd decision-making.
作者
张亚莉
李文静
贺霖青
Zhang Yali;Li Wenjing;He Linqin(School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 213164,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
2025年第16期139-149,共11页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
陕西省社会科学基金项目“外部冲击下陕西省新能源汽车产业供应链韧性提升策略研究”(2023R037)。
关键词
新能源汽车供应链
中断风险管理
风险识别
风险态度
风险管理力度
从众效应程度
new energy vehicle supply chain
disruption risk management
risk identification
risk attitude
risk management intensity
degree of herding effect
