摘要
应急预算是地方政府从容应对突发公共事件、化解社会风险的重要保障。我国地方应急预算长期面临着总量投入不足、地区分布不均、使用管理不规范等问题。文章从政府间财政关系的角度出发,构建了一个关于救助预期何以影响地方应急预算的理论框架,使用2016~2020年中国30个省级地方政府的面板数据以及空间面板计量模型进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,在中国式财政分权的体制下,地方政府之间的“逐底竞争”或互相依赖的心理导致地方应急预算出现显著的负空间自相关性。与此同时,由于我国央地财政关系中预算软约束机制的存在,地方政府在应急财政方面更加倾向于中央政府的事后救助,导致地方用于应对突发公共事件的应急预算不足。此研究可以丰富应急管理中政府间财政关系的相关理论,为理解地方政府的应急管理行为、优化央地财政关系和制定科学的应急预算制度提供经验支持。
Emergency budgeting is a vital guarantee for local governments to respond effectively to public emergencies and mitigate social risks.However,Chinese local governments have long faced issues such as insufficient total emergency funding,uneven regional allocation,and inadequate budget management.From the perspective of intergovernmental fiscal relations,this study develops a theoretical framework to explain how bailout expectations influence local emergency budgets.Using panel data from 30 provincial-level governments in China(2016-2020)and spatial econometric models,we conduct an empirical analysis.The findings indicate that under China's fiscal decentralization,a"race to the bottom"or interdependence among local governments leads to significant negative spatial autocorrelation in emergency budgets.Meanwhile,due to the soft budget constraint mechanism in China's central-local fiscal relationship,local governments tend to rely on ex post bailouts from the central government,resulting in insufficient emergency budgeting.This research enriches theoretical understanding of fiscal relations in emergency management,and offers empirical evidence to better comprehend local government behavior,optimize central-local fiscal relations,and formulate effective emergency budgeting policies.
作者
王秋石
李睿莹
於莉
Wang Qiushi;Li Ruiying;Yu Li(School of Government,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou;School of Politics and Public Administration,South China Normal University,Guangzhou)
出处
《经济社会体制比较》
北大核心
2025年第4期48-57,72,共11页
Comparative Economic & Social Systems
基金
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“共同富裕时代的新型预算与财政体制建构研究”(项目编号:22JJD630022)
中山大学研究生学术创新项目“为突发公共事件预算:政府间财政关系对地方应急预算的影响研究”(项目编号:13000-11230011)。
关键词
突发公共事件
救助预期
地方应急预算
空间计量
Public Emergencies
Bailout Expectations
Local Emergency Budgets
Spatial Econometrics
