摘要
人口问题是“国之大者”。中国人口发展正在发生重大转折性变化,人口规模从2022年开始发生趋势性规模缩减,人口结构快速少子化老龄化,老年人口高龄化趋势日益突出,少子化、老龄化和城镇化的演变进程都快于同等发展水平国家。未来人口规模缩减、结构少子化老龄化还将持续发展,由此带来的劳动力供给规模持续缩减和创新发展能力下降将引致经济潜在增长率持续下降。为此,需要顺应人口规模和结构的内在发展趋势,提前做好中长期应对战略规划。
Population is a crucial factor influencing a country's economic and social development.China's demographic landscape is undergoing significant transformative changes.China's population size began a trend of decline from 2022,with the demographic structure rapidly shifting towards fewer children and an aging population.The trend of an increasingly older elderly population is becoming more prominent.The evolution of China's declining birth rate,aging population,and urbanization has progressed faster than that of countries at similar development levels.In the future,the reduction in population size and the aging demographic structure will continue to evolve.The continuous reduction in the size of the labor supply and the decline in innovation and development capabilities will lead to a sustained decrease in the potential economic growth rate.It is necessary to align with the inherent trends of population size and structure and formulate medium and long-term strategic plans in advance.
出处
《改革》
北大核心
2025年第8期11-34,共24页
Reform
关键词
人口规模
人口结构
经济增长
社会发展
population size
demographic structure
economic growth
social development
