摘要
本文基于2012—2022年6期中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)微观面板数据,运用固定效应模型和中介效应分析方法,系统探究家庭人口老化对家庭消费的影响机理,并检验预防性储蓄的中介效应。研究结果显示,家庭人口老化显著抑制家庭消费,且在消费结构上表现为对享受型消费的抑制作用和对生存型消费的促进作用。通过进一步的机制检验发现,预防性储蓄在家庭人口老化影响消费的过程中发挥中介作用。家庭在老龄化压力下,为应对未来养老和健康支出风险,倾向于增加预防性储蓄、减少当期消费,进而强化了家庭人口老化对消费的抑制效应。家庭人口老化对家庭消费的抑制效应具有明显异质性:从城乡与区域层面来看,农村地区和西部地区的抑制效应较强,东北地区则无显著抑制效应;从家庭财富水平来看,抑制效应主要作用于中等财富水平家庭;从家庭健康层面来看,家庭人口老化对家庭消费的影响随健康水平呈非线性变化;从少年抚养比层面来看,低等和中等少年抚养比家庭所受抑制效应更为明显。本文为理解人口老龄化背景下家庭消费下滑的微观传导机制提供了经验证据,也为促进消费增长提供了一定的政策参考。
Based on micro-panel data from six waves of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2012 to 2022,this paper systematically explores the mechanism through which household population ageing affects household consumption and examines the mediating effect of precautionary savings using fixed-effects models and mediation analysis.The findings indicate that household population ageing significantly suppresses household consumption,with the impact on consumption structure manifested as a suppression of enjoyment-oriented consumption and a promotion of subsistence-oriented consumption.Mechanism tests reveal that precautionary savings play a mediating role in the process through which household population ageing affects consumption.Under the pressure of ageing,households tend to increase precautionary savings and reduce current consumption to cope with future risks related to elderly care and health expenditures,thereby reinforcing the inhibitory effect of household population ageing on consumption.The inhibitory effect of household population ageing on household consumption exhibits significant heterogeneity:From the perspectives of urban-rural and regional differences,the inhibitory effect is stronger in rural areas and the western region,while no significant effect is observed in the northeastern region;In terms of household wealth,the inhibitory effect is more pronounced in households with medium wealth levels;From the perspective of household health,the impact of household population ageing on consumption varies nonlinearly with health status;From the perspective of the youth dependency ratio,households with low and medium youth dependency ratios experience more pronounced inhibitory effects.This study provides empirical evidence for understanding the micro-level transmission mechanism of declining household consumption in the context of population ageing and offers policy insights for promoting consumption growth.
作者
赵周华
安晓洋
ZHAO Zhouhua;AN Xiaoyang(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China;Research Base of the Development of“Jiziwan”of the Yellow River,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China;Industrial Informatization and Industrial Innovation Research Center of Inner Mongolia,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China)
出处
《前沿》
2026年第1期87-104,共18页
Forward Position
基金
国家自然科学基金“老龄化背景下延迟退休对劳动力市场和社保养老基金的影响研究”(72564034)
国家自然科学基金“老龄化背景下我国农村老年多维贫困的测度、致贫因素及扶贫政策研究”(71964027)
内蒙古自然科学基金面上项目“数字技能、社会支持与老年人口健康促进:效果测度、机制探究与政策建议”(2025MS07027)。
关键词
家庭人口老化
家庭消费
消费结构
预防性储蓄
household population ageing
household consumption
consumption structure
precautionary savings
