摘要
为研究适合系统故障演化过程(System Fault Evolution Process,SFEP)中系统功能状态的预测方法,提出考虑演化关系的系统功能状态预测方法和数学模型。提出了考虑演化关系的预测思想,建立了系统功能状态预测模型。研究认为系统内部结构、外部运行环境以及测量系统都影响着预测结果;时间不应作为因素参与系统功能状态的预测;基于数据的预测具有不确定性,基于演化关系的预测具有稳定的变化规律,将两者结合可实现较为合理的预测方法。论证了演化关系在预测系统功能状态过程中的重要作用。结合实例说明了算法应用过程并得到了预期结果,认为提高数据量和分级数能提高预测精度。
To study the prediction method of system functional state in system fault evolution process(SFEP),the prediction method and mathematical model of system function state considering the evolution relationship are pro posed.The prediction idea considering the evolution relationship is put forward;the system function state prediction model is established;The results show that:the system internal structure,the external operating environment and the measurement system all influence the prediction results;Time shall not participate in the prediction of system function status as a factor;The prediction based on the data is uncertain,and the prediction based on the evolution relationship has a stable change law.Combining the two can achieve a more reasonable prediction method.The important role of evolution relationship in the process of predicting system function state is demonstrated.The application process of the algorithm is illustrated with an example and the expected results are obtained.It is considered that the prediction ac curacy can be improved by increasing the number of data and grades.
作者
崔铁军
贾皓文
李莎莎
CUI Tiejun;JIA Haowen;LI Shasha(School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering,Shenyang Ligong University,Shenyang Liaoning 110159,China;School of Information Science and Engineering,Shenyang Ligong University,Shenyang Liaoning 110159,China)
出处
《工业安全与环保》
2025年第9期1-5,共5页
Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection
基金
国家自然科学基金(52004120)。
关键词
安全系统学
系统功能状态
演化关系
联系数
预测方法
safety systematology
system function status
evolutionary relationship
connection number
prediction method
