摘要
本文基于1983—2023年中国宏观经济数据,构建VAR模型与脉冲响应分析,实证研究外商直接投资对中国出口贸易结构的影响。其中,外商直接投资与中国出口结构存在显著协整关系,这表明两者具有长期动态关联性;外商直接投资是出口结构优化的格兰杰原因,主要通过资本形成、技术溢出及产业升级效应推动出口向高技术和高附加值产品转型,且出口结构优化会吸引外资流入,形成正向反馈。从脉冲响应来看,短期外商直接投资冲击对出口结构改善有显著正向作用;中期效应波动性显现,由于部分外资流向低附加值领域,会抑制升级进程;长期影响呈现衰减趋势,但第10期后小幅回升,反映出外商直接投资通过产业链协同等机制持续优化结构。外商直接投资对中国出口结构升级具有非线性动态影响,需通过精准政策调控最大化其正向效应,加速构建现代化产业体系。基于此,本文提出以下建议:第一,引导外资投向,优化产业结构;第二,优化投资环境,吸引高质量外资;第三,采取有效的政府干预措施,推动产业结构国际化合作。
Based on China’s macroeconomic data from 1983 to 2023,the VAR model and impulse response analysis were developed to empirically study the impact of foreign direct investment(FDI)on China’s export trade structure.Notably,there is a significant cooperative relationship between FDI and China’s export structure,which shows that the two have a long-term dynamic correlation.FDI is the reason for optimizing export structure.It mainly promotes the transformation of exports to high-tech and high-value-added products through capital formation,technology spillover,and industrial upgrading effects.Export structure optimization also attracts foreign capital inflows,thus forming positive feedback.From the perspective of impulse response,the short-term FDI positively affects export structure optimization,and the medium-term effect fluctuates.Given that foreign capital that flows to low value-added areas will inhibit upgrading,the long-term impact shows a tendency to decline.However,there was a slight rebound after the 10th issue,which reflects that FDI continues to optimize the structure through mechanisms such as industrial chain coordination.FDI has a non-linear dynamic impact on the upgrading of China’s export structure.It is necessary to maximize its positive effect through precise policy regulation and accelerate the building of a modern industrial system.Based on the above empirical conclusions,the following suggestions are put forward:First,encourage foreign investment to enter high-tech industries and optimize industrial structure.Second,improve the investment environment and attract high-quality investment.Third,adopt effective government intervention measures and facilitate international cooperation in industrial structure.
作者
廖馨语
Liao Xinyu(Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha,Hunan 410128)
出处
《中国商论》
2025年第16期53-57,共5页
China Journal of Commerce
