摘要
新发展格局下,国内国际双循环的深度融合驱动金融业务数字化转型,贷款客户失联行为因数字身份隐匿、跨平台资产转移等技术手段呈现复杂化、隐蔽化特征,传统风控体系面临算法黑箱与规则僵化的双重矛盾。文章提出集成学习与业务规则协同驱动机制,构建数据-模型-规则三维架构,在特征筛选、阈值判断与结果修正三阶段形成动态闭环优化:基于Shapley值挖掘非线性特征关联,结合动态概率校准与刚性监管阈值平衡决策边界,并运用置信度评估触发规则强干预。该机制可精准识别“躲猫猫”、卷款跑路、假失踪等典型失联模式,为金融机构提供兼具可解释性与适应性的风控解决方案,推动风险防控向敏捷化、合规化转型。
In the context of the new development paradigm,the deep integration of domestic and international dual circulation is accelerating the digital transformation of financial services.With the rise of adversarial technologies such as digital identity masking and cross-platform asset migration,loan customer disconnection behaviors have become increasingly complex and difficult to detect.Traditional risk control systems are challenged by both algorithmic opacity and rigid rule-based frameworks.This paper presents a synergy-driven framework that integrates ensemble learning with business rules,forming a three-dimensional data-model-rule architecture.It enables dynamic closed-loop optimization through three key stages:feature selection,threshold determination,and result refinement.The mechanism employs Shapley value analysis to reveal non-linear feature interactions,combines probabilistic calibration with regulatory thresholds to define decision boundaries,and uses confidence scores to activate rule-based interventions.This framework enables accurate identification of typical disconnection patterns such as"hide-and-seek"behavior,fleeing with funds,and false disappearance.It offers financial institutions an interpretable yet flexible risk management solution,facilitating the transition toward more agile and compliant risk prevention strategies.
作者
王嘉琦
Wang Jiaqi(Guangdong Mechanical&Electrical Polytechnic,Guangzhou 510515,China)
出处
《办公自动化》
2025年第16期4-8,共5页
Office Informatization
基金
广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“新发展格局下基于集成学习的贷款失联客户失联模式识别研究”(项目编号:GD24CGL35)
广东省教育厅2023年度广东省普通高校特色创新类项目“互联网金融信息中介平台运营风险的生成机制与风险分级管理研究”(项目编号:2023WTSCX179)
广东机电职业技术学院2023年高层次人才科研启动经费项目“基于集成学习方法的贷款失联客户失联模式识别研究”(项目编号:Gccrcxm-202308)。
关键词
新发展格局
贷款客户
失联模式
集成学习
业务规则
金融科技
new development paradigm
loan customers
disconnection pattern
ensemble learning
business rules
financial technology
