摘要
本研究在理论探究和假设分析的基础上,采用综合评价方法,通过2012—2022年全国31个省份(未包括港澳台地区)的面板数据,对各省份的数字经济发展水平、农业产业发展状况进行测度,并运用基准回归模型和中介效应模型对数字经济与农业之间的关系进行回归。同时,通过各省数字经济的相关数据进行实证分析、描述性分析以及门槛效应等相关性分析及检验,从创新、协调、绿色、开放和共享发展五大新发展理念出发,深层剖析影响农业高质量增长的相关因子。实证分析结果表明:数字经济通过发挥产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化两大中介效能,即构建数字经济→产业结构高级化→促进产业高质量发展路径对农业高质量发展进行全面赋能;数字经济发展有助于提升农业产业发展的生产效率和服务质量,随着农业高质量发展水平的逐步提高,门槛效应逐渐增强。结合实证分析结果,本研究提出以下政策建议:第一,针对地区差异实施差异化数字农业发展策略;第二,强化产业结构高级化与合理化的中介作用,推动农业与二三产业融合;第三,应对门槛效应,分阶段动态调整数字政策力度等。
On the basis of theoretical exploration and hypothesis analysis,this paper used the synthetical assess method to measure the development level of digital economy and the development of agricultural industry in 31 provinces(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan)in China from 2012 to 2022 by using the panel data,and used the benchmark regression model and the intermediary effect model to regress the relationship between digital economy and agriculture.Then,through the relevant data of the digital economy of each province,empirical analysis,descriptive analysis and threshold effect correlation analysis and test were carried out.Starting from the five new development concepts of innovation,coordination,green,open and shared development,the relevant factors affecting the high-quality growth of agriculture were deeply analyzed.The empirical analysis results showed that the digital economy fully empowers the high-quality development of agriculture by giving full play to the two intermediary functions of industrial structure upgrading and industrial structure rationalization,that is,building a digital economy→industrial structure upgrading→promoting industrial high-quality development path.The development of digital economy helps to improve the production efficiency and service quality of agricultural industry development,but with the gradual improvement of the level of high-quality agricultural development,the threshold effect is gradually enhanced.Based on the results of empirical analysis,this study proposed the following policy recommendations:first,implement differentiated digital agriculture development strategies for regional differences;second,strengthen the intermediary role of industrial structure upgrading and rationalization,and promote the integration of agriculture and the secondary and tertiary industries;third,deal with the threshold effect,and dynamically adjust the strength of digital policies in stages.
作者
刘昱嘉
李微
Liu Yujia;Li Wei(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,Heilongjiang)
出处
《农业展望》
2025年第4期21-34,共14页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
国家社科基金面上项目“碳市场与气候政策有效匹配的韧性机制与政策优化研究”(编号:24BGL205)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“双碳目标下黑龙江林区多业态产业经济发展愿景系统仿真研究”(编号:22GLB115)。
关键词
数字经济
产业结构调整
农业高质量发展
中介效应
门槛效应
digital economy
industrial structure adjustment
agricultural high-quality development
mediating effect
threshold effect
