摘要
应用LEAP模型结合情景分析法构建碳排放测算模型,设计5种模拟情景。结果显示:仅在能源效率提高情景(EEF)综合低碳情景(COM)下,能耗总量及碳排放量在2030年达峰,能耗总量峰值分别为49187万t标准煤与50379万t标准煤,碳排放峰值分别为147281万t、130057万t;通过单因素分析法分析COM情景分部门碳减排潜力,工业部门减排贡献率最大,为84.81%;山东省要在目标年内达成“双碳”目标,需持续提升能源利用效率、优化产业及能源消费结构,以实现能源清洁化转型。
This article applies the LEAP model combined with the scenario analysis method to construct a carbon emission calculation model and designs five simulation scenarios.The results show that:Only under the EEF(energy efficiency scenario)and COM(comprehensive low carbon scenario)scenarios will the total energy consumption and carbon emissions peak in 2030;the peak values of total energy consumption are 491.87 and 503.79 million tons of standard coal respectively,and the peak values of carbon emissions are 1472.81 and 1300.57 million tons respectively.Through the single-factor analysis method,the carbon emission reduction potential of each sector under the COM scenario is analyzed,and the industrial sector has the largest emission reduction contribution rate,which is 84.81%.In order to achieve the"dual carbon"goal within the target year,Shandong Province needs to continuously improve energy utilization efficiency,optimize the industrial and energy consumption structures,so as to realize the clean transformation of energy.
出处
《环境保护与循环经济》
2025年第6期1-5,9,共6页
Environmental Protection and Circular Economy
关键词
LEAP模型
碳达峰
能源消费
山东省
LEAP model
peak carbon dioxide emissions
energy consumption
Shandong Province
