摘要
在全球经济环境不确定性加剧、世界贸易波动日益扩大的背景下,出口韧性已成为各界关注的重点之一。本文基于产品空间理论,利用2001~2021年中国双边贸易数据考察多重产品关联对出口韧性的影响。研究发现:直接产品关联通过提高产品生产能力、降低贸易成本能够显著提升出口韧性;间接产品关联也能显著正向影响出口韧性,且大于直接产品关联的影响,但其作用效应随出口目的地邻近关系的不同存在差异,其中地理和文化间接关联的提升作用最明显;此外,直接产品关联以及不同邻近维度间接产品关联的作用效应具有显著出口区域和产品异质性。上述发现表明,中国的出口韧性受现有产品空间结构关系影响,依赖于既有的生产能力和多元化出口结构,未来应着力于进一步优化贸易格局。
With the intensification of global economic uncertainty and the instability of trade fluctuations,export resilience has become one of the key concerns of different circles.Based on the product space theory,this paper examines the impact of multi-dimensional product relatedness on export resilience by using China s bilateral trade data from 2001 to 2021.We find that direct product relatedness can significantly enhance export resilience by improving product production capabilities and reducing trade costs.Meanwhile,indirect product relatedness also has a notable positive impact on export resilience,more than the influence of direct product relatedness,and its effectiveness varies dramatically in the proximity of export destinations.In particular,the impact of geographical and cultural indirect product relatedness is much impressive.Additionally,the impact is significantly heterogeneous of both direct and indirect product(different neighboring dimensions)relatedness on different export destination and product.These findings indicate that China s export resilience is influenced by existing product space structure and relatedness,which means export resilience relies on China production capabilities and diversified export structure.Future efforts should focus on further optimizing the trade pattern.
作者
丁小义
邹钧芫
Ding Xiaoyi;Zou Junyuan
出处
《经济研究参考》
2025年第7期64-88,共25页
Review of Economic Research
基金
教育部人文社科一般项目“数字贸易对全球价值链嵌入的作用机制、实现路径与对策研究”(No.22YJC790005)
浙江省属高校基本科研业务费专项资金“数字服务贸易网络地位影响全球价值链嵌入的机制与路径研究”(No.GB202402008)。
关键词
直接产品关联
间接产品关联
出口韧性
direct product relatedness
indirect product relatedness
export resilience
