摘要
基于2000—2020年联合国商品贸易统计数据库(UN-Comtrade)数据,利用时变随机前沿引力模型考察贸易制度安排对中国农产品出口“一带一路”沿线国家贸易效率的影响,并测算贸易效率。研究显示,2020年中国农产品出口“一带一路”沿线国家的总体平均贸易效率仅为0.475,对印度、日本、越南、印尼、缅甸和俄罗斯等国家有较大出口潜力;贸易国双方签署自由贸易协定时间越长,越能提升出口贸易效率;出口目的国加入世界贸易组织有利于中国农产品出口效率提升,但加入世界贸易组织时长的影响并不显著;出口目的国司法效率、货币自由度、投资自由度、贸易自由度以及金融自由度的提高有利于贸易效率的提高,而政府财政支出和商业自由度的提高却不利于贸易效率的提高。为提高中国农产品出口“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易效率,应充分重视出口目的国贸易制度安排与社会经济制度,在中国与“一带一路”沿线国家已有自由贸易区基础上,加快与“一带一路”沿线国家的双边和多边自由贸易区谈判。
Based on the data from 2001 to 2020 in UN-Comtrade database,the authors explore the impact of trade regime arrangement on the trade efficiency of China’s agricultural products export to countries along the Belt and Road by using the timevarying stochastic frontier gravity model,and further measure the trade efficiency. The results show that,first,the overall average export efficiency of China’s agricultural products to countries along the Belt and Road in 2020 is only 0.475,which demonstrates the great export potential to India,Japan,Vietnam,Indonesia,Myanmar,Russia,and so on. Second,the longer the FTA is established by the two trading countries,the more the trade efficiency will be improved;and the accession of destination country to WTO is beneficial to the improvement of the efficiency of China’s agricultural products export,but the positive effect of the length of entry to WTO is not significant. And third,the improvement of judicial efficiency,monetary freedom,investment freedom,trade freedom and financial freedom of export destination countries can significantly improve the trade efficiency,while the increase of government fiscal expenditure and the improvement of commercial freedom is not conducive to the improvement of trade efficiency. To boost the trade efficiency of China’s agricultural products export to countries along the Belt and Road,we should pay more attention to institutional arrangement and social and economic system of the destination country;and based on the existing free trade zone,we should accelerate the biliteral and multilateral trade negotiation with countries along the Belt and Road.
作者
曹芳芳
张静
李先德
CAO Fang-fang;ZHANG Jing;LI Xian-de(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,CAAS,Beijing 100081,China;School of Economics,Bejing Wuzi University,Beijing 101149,China)
出处
《中国流通经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期67-78,共12页
China Business and Market
基金
中国农业科学院科技创新工程“国际农业经济与贸易”(10-IAED-04-2022)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项“中国对澳大利亚大麦“双反”措施的贸易转移和贸易创造效应研究”(1610052022013)
北京市社会科学基金项目“制度型开放视角下北京对外贸易高质量发展研究”(21JJC031)
北京市教育委员会社会科学基金项目“‘一带一路’倡议、价值链重构与中国出口产品质量”(SM202110037002)。
关键词
贸易制度安排
贸易效率
农产品出口
时变随机前沿引力模型
“一带一路”沿线国家
trade regime arrangement
trade efficiency
agricultural products export
time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model
countries along the Belt and Road
