摘要
从投入产出视角,利用国家统计局投入产出表和BACI海关数据,测算2012—2020年中国制造业自主与可控水平并进行比较分析。结果显示,中国制造业整体自主水平呈倒U型变化趋势,可控水平呈N型,表明中国制造业的自主可控水平呈现出阶段性提升与回落。进一步分析发现,劳动密集型行业自主性较高且稳定,资本密集型行业自主性和可控性均提升,而技术密集型行业自主性较低且波动较大。对比中、美、英、德、法、日几个制造业强国,整体上中国自主水平最高,可控水平仅次于德国,这得益于中国过去几十年政策与市场双驱动的成功。
From the perspective of input-output analysis,this study utilizes the inputoutput tables from the National Bureau of Statistics and BACI customs data to measure the autonomy and controllability levels of China’s manufacturing sector from 2012 to 2020 and conduct an international comparative analysis.The results show that the overall autonomy level in China’s manufacturing industry has undergone an inverted U-shaped trend while the controllability level exhibited an inverted N-shaped pattern,indicating phased fluctuations in the sector’s self-sufficiency and control capabilities.Further analysis reveals that labor-intensive industries maintained relatively high and stable autonomy,capital-intensive industries showed improvements in both autonomy and controllability,whereas technology-intensive industries demonstrated lower autonomy with greater volatility.In comparison with five manufacturing powerhouses—Japan,France,the United States,the United Kingdom,and Germany—China,as a whole,has the highest autonomy level,with controllability second only to Germany.This success can be attributed to decades of effective policymarket dual-drive mechanisms in China.
作者
傅元海
陈丽姗
黄泽泓
FU Yuanhai;CHEN Lishan;HUANG Zehong
出处
《亚太经济》
北大核心
2025年第4期142-160,共19页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国现代制造业体系实现自主可控的机制、路径与对策研究”(22AJY023)。
关键词
制造业
自主可控水平
测度
Manufacturing
Autonomy and Controllability
Measurement
