摘要
为了对TBM长距离掘进的可靠性量化评估提供有效手段,首先综合考虑了TBM设备设计、地质条件、工程设计三个方面的21个因素,建立了多维度的TBM长距离掘进的可靠性评价体系。然后,利用X、Y条件云模型对评价体系中的定性指标进行量化,有效解决了评估时的模糊性与不确定性问题。同时,为合理平衡多元指标对评估的影响,基于层次分析法与反熵权法确定指标的主、客观权重后,使用改进博弈论对主、客观权重进行耦合,以此获得各指标的综合权重。最后,使用易于计算与理解的物元可拓模型实现量化评估。以新疆某引水隧洞的TBM1(21.69 km)、TBM2(24.42 km)与TBM3(20.14 km)施工段作为研究对象,对其进行评估。结果表明:提出的评价框架能准确对TBM长距离掘进的可靠性进行评估。新疆某引水隧洞的三台TBM均能满足长距离掘进的需求,其中TBM2施工段的可靠性为好,TBM1与TBM3的可靠性为较好。
To provide an effective method for quantitatively assessing the reliability of TBM long-distance tunneling,21 factors from three aspects-TBM equipment design,geological conditions,and engineering design-were comprehensively considered.A multi-dimensional reliability evaluation system for TBM long-distance tunneling was then developed.Subsequently,qualitative indicators within this evaluation system were quantified using the X and Y condition cloud model,effectively addressing the issues of fuzziness and uncertainty during evaluation.To reasonably balance the influence of multiple indicators on the evaluation,the hierarchical analysis method and anti-entropy weighting method were employed to determine the subjective and objective weights of the indicators.The coupling of these weights was then achieved using an improved game theory approach to obtain the overall weights of each indicator.Finally,a quantitative evaluation was conducted using the easily computable and interpretable matter-element extension model.The evaluation was performed on three TBM segments(TBM1:21.69 km,TBM2:24.42 km,and TBM3:20.14 km)for a diversion tunnel project in Xinjiang.The results show that the proposed evaluation framework accurately assesses the reliability of TBM long-distance tunneling.All three TBMs in the Xinjiang diversion tunnel can meet the requirements for long-distance tunneling,with TBM2 showing good reliability,and TBM1 and TBM3 showing relatively good reliability.
作者
张建明
侍克斌
罗纬邦
裴成元
林沛轩
严新军
姜海波
ZHANG Jianming;SHI Kebin;LUO Weibang;PEI Chengyuan;LIN Peixuan;YAN Xinjun;JIANG Haibo(Xinjiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830000,China;College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disaster Prevention,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China;Xinjiang Shuifa Construction Group Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830063,China)
出处
《水利与建筑工程学报》
2025年第4期193-201,共9页
Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52369021)
“天山英才”培养计划项目(2024TSYCCX0027)
“新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室”2024年研究项目(ZDSYS-YJS-2024-12)。
关键词
长距离隧洞
TBM长距离掘进
可靠性评价
云模型
物元可拓模型
long-distance tunnel
TBM long-distance tunneling
reliability assessment
cloud model
matter-element extension model
