摘要
文章基于2010—2022年我国30个省份的面板数据,用加入时间变量的熵权法测算未来产业发展水平,用核密度估计法、空间自相关模型、障碍度模型分析我国未来产业发展水平的动态演进特征及障碍因子。研究结果显示,尽管未来产业发展水平逐年提升,但仍存在显著的梯度分布特征,且其主要依靠产业成长能力来带动。南方地区未来产业整体发展水平和子维度发展水平均领先于北方地区,且在南北方地区均存在明显的区域内差异和两极分化问题。我国未来产业存在明显的正向空间集聚特征,且带动效应与虹吸效应并存。产业成长能力和创新生态支持能力是影响未来产业发展的主要障碍因子,对应的主要障碍因子指标有产业结构升级、工业机器人渗透率、研发经费投入强度,但障碍因子在南北方地区存在差异。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2022,this paper calculates the future industry development level by using the entropy weight method with time variables,and analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics and obstacle factors of the future industry development level in China by using the kernel density estimation method,spatial autocorrelation model,and obstacle degree model.The research results show that although the future industry development level has been increasing year by year,there are still significant gradient distribution characteristics,and it mainly relies on the driving force of industrial growth capacity.The overall development level and sub-dimension development level of future industries in the southern region are ahead of those in the northern region,and there are intra-regional differences and polarization problems in both the southern and northern regions.China’s future industries have obvious positive spatial agglomeration characteristics,and both the driving effect and the siphon effect coexist.Industrial growth capacity and innovation ecosystem support capacity are the main obstacle factors affecting the development of future industries,and the corresponding main obstacle factor indicators include industrial structure upgrading,industrial robot penetration rate,and R&D expenditure intensity.However,the obstacle factors vary between the southern and northern regions.
作者
胡苗
吴旭辉
鲁雪峰
Hu Miao;Wu Xuhui;Lu Xuefeng(Institute of Agricultural Development,Gansu Academy of Social Sciences,Lanzhou 730070,China;Magazine Office,Gansu Academy of Social Sciences,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
北大核心
2025年第16期84-89,共6页
Statistics & Decision
基金
甘肃省科技厅软科学项目(23JRZA467)
甘肃省科技厅软科学项目(25JRZA142)
甘肃省基础研究计划-软科学专项资助项目(25JRZA142)。
关键词
未来产业
核密度
熵权法
障碍因子
future industry
kernel density
entropy weight method
obstacle factors
