摘要
我国司法语境下结果回避可能性理论的适用存在实践阻碍。在判断逻辑上,结果回避可能性的判断结论取决于对结果的抽象化程度,混淆了结果的内容与归责的认定。在理论功能上,结果回避可能性的判断不具有把握行为与结果之间关联性的能力,其规范性目标是确认行为规范的有效性。风险升高理论试图补救假定性判断对于关联性考察的欠缺,但该理论以结果发生概率的提升作为归属基准,无视事实关联性,司法实务应当警惕这种思考逻辑。盖然性法则的运用是确立因果性作用关联的一种方式,不违反存疑有利被告原则。当结果回避可能性的判断出现问题时,通常存在其他对结果发生施加作用的潜在危险源。结果回避可能性的判断应转向危险现实化模式下的正向考察,根据能够查明的义务违反行为对于结果发生施加的作用力大小决定结果归属。
In China's judicial context,the application of the result avoidance possibility theory faces practical challenges.Logically,the conclusion of assessing result avoidance possibility hinges on the degree of abstraction of the outcome,conflating the content of the result with the determination of liability attribution.Functionally,assessing result avoidance possibility lacks the capacity to capture the correlation between conduct and outcome,with its normative objective being to confirm the validity of behavioral norms.Risk elevation theory attempts to remedy the deficiency in examining correlation through hypothetical judgment by taking the increased probability of outcome occurrence as the basis for attribution,disregarding factual correlation;judicial practice should be alert to this reasoning.The application of the probability principle is a means to establish causal functional relationships,without violating the principle of"in dubio pro reo"(benefit of the doubt for the defendant).When assessing result avoidance possibility encounters issues,there are typically other potential hazard sources influencing the occurrence of the result.The assessment of result avoidance possibility should shift to a positive examination under the dangerous actualization model,determining outcome attribution based on the magnitude of influence exerted by identifiable breaches of obligation on the occurrence of the result.
出处
《北方法学》
2025年第4期24-38,共15页
Northern Legal Science
基金
江苏省社会科学基金项目“行刑衔接视角下行政犯的结果归属研究”(24FXD001)的阶段性成果。
关键词
结果回避可能性
风险升高
盖然性法则
残存的危险
result avoidance possibility
risk elevation theory
probability principle
residual danger
