摘要
电网资产的风险可控是电网规划设计、改造升级和运维管理的基本保障,对于当前新型电力系统的加速建设至关重要。本文从实际出发评估极端天气影响下电网资产的潜在风险水平。首先,根据电网资产特性,建立考虑融合多种极端天气的电网资产风险评估指标体系;其次,通过BWM法和CRITIC法分别确定各指标的主、客观权重,利用纳什均衡理论实现组合赋权;最后,引入Tanimoto系数改进传统的TOPSIS法对H市六个辖区电网资产风险进行评估。分析评估发现:六个市辖区电网资产风险等级呈现梯度变化,且区域差异明显;专项基金储备情况、冰冻强度、地形和地势环境敏感性影响系数等因素可能对风险等级产生了重要影响。基于此,应建立完善的电网极端天气风险评估标准体系、优化电网防灾资源配置与区域协同机制和健全政策激励机制提升企业自主风险管理能力,以提升电网公司对极端天气下电网资产风险的把控和化解能力。
The controllable risks of power grid assets are the fundamental guarantee for the planning and design,transformation and upgrading,and operation and maintenance management of power grids,which is of vital importance to the accelerated construction of the current new power system.This article assesses the potential risk level of power grid assets under the influence of extreme weather based on reality.Firstly,based on the characteristics of power grid assets,establish a risk as sessment index system for power grid assets that considers the integration of multiple extreme weather conditions;Secondly,the subjective and objective weights of each index are determined respectively through the BWM method and the CRITIC method,and the combined weighting is achieved by using the Nash equilibrium theory.Finally,the Tanimoto coefficient was introduced to improve the traditional TOPSIS method to assess the risks of power grid assets in the six districts of City H.The analysis and assessment reveal that the risk levels of power grid assets in the six municipal districts show gradient changes,and the regional differences are obvious.Factors such as the reserve situation of special funds,freezing intensity,and the influence coefficient of terrain and topographic environmental sensitivity may have had significant impacts on the risk level.Based on this,a complete risk assessment standard system for extreme weather in the power grid should be established,the allocation of disaster prevention resources in the power grid and the regional coordination mechanism should be optimized,and the policy incentive mechanism should be improved to enhance the independent risk management capabilities of enterprises,so as to improve the ability of power grid companies to control and resolve the risks of power grid assets under extreme weather.
作者
关征
潘柯
林健
崔航
于起孔
高建伟
张甜
GUAN Zheng;PAN Ke;LIN Jian;CUI Hang(YingDa Chang'An Insurance Brokers Co.,LTD.,Beijing 100052)
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2025年第5期135-140,243,共7页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
北京市自然科学基金资助项目“多能融合战略下北京市电力系统充裕性评估与决策研究”(9202017)。
关键词
极端天气
电网资产
风险评估
extreme weather
power grid assets
risk assessmen
