摘要
文章以新时期中国“三区”国土分类体系为统一空间标尺,基于多源时序数据定量解析欧洲2002—2022年三区空间转型过程,采用景观格局指数构建三区空间冲突模型,并在识别关键驱动因素的基础上模拟预测了欧洲三区空间冲突的未来演化趋势。结果表明:(1)欧洲城镇空间仍呈现全局性的持续扩张态势,农业空间和生态空间的动态互演尤为显著,全欧农林格局正在进行深刻的空间格局调整,并在50°N~60°N之间形成一条明显的动态转型聚集带。(2)欧洲三区空间冲突呈现“南北低、中部高”的空间分异格局,并具有典型的周期性变化趋势和时序波动特征,不同地区转型演化进程对时间步长敏感性有所差异,以自然为主导的地区相较于城市化地区更为平缓。(3)自然地理基础和水文条件变化主导着欧洲三区空间转型及其冲突演化进程,大气水汽压、降雨、温度、坡度和纬度等非人为因素正在全局尺度持续、缓慢且小幅度地改变着三区空间冲突格局,并将在更大时间跨度下展现出更显著的驱动作用。(4)未来欧洲三区空间冲突整体水平极有可能经历一个上升周期,其中欧洲中部高冲突值聚集区有向东欧平原逐渐扩张,从而形成一条高冲突值延绵带的潜在趋势。未来,我国三区空间转型优化调控应重视气候水文条件变化对国土空间的动态影响,加强国土空间规划对气候敏感区的科学判别与弹性管理策略制定,尽快从全局尺度摸清三区空间转型及其冲突的周期性演进规律。
Employing China's contemporary spatial classification system of urban-agricultural-ecological(UAE)spaces as a unified spatial benchmark,this paper quantitatively analyzed the spatial transformation of Europe's UAE spaces from 2002 to 2022 based on the multi-source temporal data.It constructs the spatial conflict model of the UAE using landscape pattern indices,simulates and predicts the future conflict evolution trends of Europe's UAE spaces on the basis of identifying the key driving factors.The findings indicate that:1)Europe's urban space continues to experience extensive global expansion,with significant dynamic interplays between agricultural and ecological spaces.Notably,profound spatial restructuring of agroforestry patterns is forming a pronounced dynamic transitional cluster between latitudes 50°N and 60°N.2)Spatial conflicts within Europe's UAE spaces show a distinct spatial differentiation pattern,characterized by lower intensity in the north and south of Europe and higher intensity in central Europe,displaying typical cyclical and temporal fluctuations.The sensitivity to temporal resolution in transformation processes varies regionally,with naturally dominated areas exhibiting smoother transitions than urbanized areas.3)Natural geographic fundamentals and hydrological conditions predominantly drive the spatial transformation and conflict evolution within Europe's UAE spaces.Non-anthropogenic factors,including atmospheric vapor pressure,precipitation,temperature,slope,and latitude,are progressively reshaping the conflict patterns at a global scale,exerting an increasingly significant influence over extended temporal horizons.4)In the future,the overall conflict level in Europe's UAE spaces is likely to enter an upward cycle.Areas of intense conflict in central Europe are projected to expand gradually towards the Eastern European Plain,potentially forming an extensive high-conflict zone.For future spatial transformation management in China,it is critical to emphasize the dynamic impacts of climatic and hydrological changes on national space,enhance scientific identification and flexible management strategies for climate-sensitive regions in spatial planning,and promptly delineate the periodic evolution patterns of UAE spatial transformation and associated conflicts at a global scale.
作者
尹力
魏伟
李泓锐
刘立阳
薄立明
YIN Li;WEI Wei;LI Hongrui;LIU Liyang;BO Liming(School of Urban Design,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China;China Institute of Development Strategy and Planning,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China;Center of Hubei Human Habitat Engineering and Technology,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China)
出处
《经济地理》
北大核心
2025年第6期11-25,共15页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42471304)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(23YJA630003)
中国地质大学(武汉)国家地理信息系统工程技术研究中心开放基金(2023KFJJ03)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(413000010)。
关键词
国土空间转型
城镇空间
农业空间
生态空间
主体功能
气候变化
territorial spatial transformation
urban space
agricultural space
ecological space
main function
climate change
