摘要
“十五五”时期是我国衔接2035年基本实现社会主义现代化目标的关键阶段,扩大内需既是应对国内外风险挑战、构建新发展格局的必然选择,也是实现高质量发展的内生动力。本文基于2000—2022年资金流量表数据,运用效应分解法与国际比较法,从宏观视角系统剖析了我国内需不足的成因以及扩大内需战略的关键着力点。研究表明,2000—2022年,我国居民最终消费率呈U形趋势,居民直接消费不足是主要原因。效应分解结果表明,初次分配效应和平均消费倾向是居民直接消费率下降的主要驱动因素。与主要OECD国家相比,我国居民初次分配收入占比偏低,平均消费倾向明显不足,民生性政府消费虽占比持续提升但规模仍有待增加。此外,我国居民消费结构中服务业消费占比偏低,医疗、文娱等行业供需匹配程度有待提高。基于以上发现,本文从优化收入分配格局、提升供需适配度、强化政府效能等方面为“十五五”时期推进扩大内需战略提出政策建议,助力经济高质量发展。
The 15th Five-year Plan period is a pivotal stage in China's journey towards achieving the goal of basic socialist modernization by 2035.Expanding domestic demand is not only an inevitable choice in response to domestic and international risks and challenges,leading to a new pattern of development,but also an endogenous motive force for realizing high-quality development.Using data from the Fund Flow Table from 2000 to 2022,this paper employs the effect decomposition and international comparison method to systematically analyses the factors contributing to China's insufficient domestic demand and the key focus points of the strategy to expand domestic demand from a macro perspective.The study reveals that,over the past two decades,the final consumption rate of Chinese households has exhibited a U-shaped trend,primarily due to their limited direct consumption.Effect decomposition results show that the primary allocation effect and average propensity to consume are the main driving factors behind the decline in residents'direct consumption rate.Compared with major OECD countries,China's residents have a low primary income allocation,an insufficient average propensity to consume,and the government's share of consumption for people's livelihoods still needs to increase,although it continues to rise in scale.Additionally,the proportion of consumption in the service industry in the consumption structure of Chinese residents is lower,and the level of matching between supply and demand in the medical,cultural,and recreational industries is yet to improve.Based on these findings,we propose the following policy recommendations for expanding domestic demand during the 15th Five-year Plan period:optimizing income allocation patterns,improving the alignment of supply and demand,and strengthening the effectiveness of government policies to facilitate the economy's high-quality development.
作者
汪德华
程怡璇
WANG Dehua;CHENG Yixuan(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
北大核心
2025年第7期15-30,共16页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
习近平经济思想研究中心课题研究项目
中国社会科学院创新工程项目(2023CJYA02-A002)的资助。
关键词
“十五五”
扩大内需
居民消费
政府消费
the 15th Five-year Plan
expanding domestic demand
household consumption
government consumption
