摘要
基于消费倾向和消费能力视角,将居民消费率分解为居民消费倾向和居民收入比重两因素,利用WID和资金流量表等数据探究了中国居民低消费率及其U型变化的成因。结果发现:与参照国均值相比,中国居民消费倾向的负向偏离度远超居民收入比重,是居民低消费率的关键症结;居民收入比重变化是中国居民消费率U型变化的主要成因;居民消费率上升期间,居民消费倾向提高对居民消费率攀升的贡献度不足25%。中国居民消费倾向偏低且提升缓慢,可从国民经济循环环节、预防性积累性储蓄两个角度加以解释。要以居民消费倾向为主要抓手,努力破解经济循环各环节阻碍消费倾向提升的瓶颈约束,通过完善社会保障、公共服务和住房制度减少预防性积累性储蓄,促进居民消费倾向和消费率有效提升。
Based on the perspectives of consumption tendency and consumption ability,the residents'consumption rate can be decomposed into two factors namely residents'consumption tendency and residents'income proportion.Using data from WID and fund flow table,the paper explores the causes of Chinese residents'low consumption rate and its U-shaped changes.The results showed that Chinese residents'consumption tendency negatively deviated far more than residents'income proportion compared with the reference countries'average;therefore,residents'consumption tendency is the key crux of Chinese residents'low consumption rate.The change in residents'income proportion was the main driving factor for the U-shaped change in Chinese residents'consumption rate.During the period of rising residents'consumption rate,the increase in residents'consumption tendency contributed less than 25%to the increase in residents'consumption rate.Chinese residents'low consumption tendency and its slow improvement can be explained from the perspectives of the national economic cycle as well as precautionary and accumulative savings.It is necessary to treat increasing residents'consumption tendency as the main direction for raising Chinese residents'consumption rate,strive to break through the bottleneck constraints that hinder the improvement of consumption tendency in various links of the economic cycle,reduce precautionary and accumulative savings through improving social security,public services and housing systems so as to raise residents'consumption tendency and consumption rate.
作者
潘文轩
PAN Wen-xuan(Shanghai Development Research Institute,Shanghai Party Institute of CPC,Shanghai 200233,China)
出处
《经济问题》
北大核心
2026年第1期26-36,共11页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“消费主导型经济的形成机制与推进路径研究”(23BJL086)。
关键词
居民消费率
消费倾向
消费能力
U型变化
residents'consumption rate
consumption tendency
consumption ability
U-shaped change
