摘要
分析与模拟曲靖市土地利用变化引发的景观生态风险时空演变特征,对区域生态风险防范及政策制定具有重要意义。基于1980年、2000年、2020年的土地利用数据,采用斑块生成土地利用模拟模型,综合景观指数法、多情景模拟及景观生态风险评价等方法,剖析曲靖市1980—2020年、2040年在3种情景下的土地利用变化及其景观生态风险时空特征,并进行驱动机制总结。结果显示:曲靖市景观生态风险均值约为0.015,低及较低级面积总占比高达70%以上,生态水平较高,整体生态安全良好;景观生态风险“南北”空间差异显著且聚集明显,呈现高风险坝区向心性和低风险山地指向性特点。稳定高风险区主要分布在水库外围,风险易变区集中在人类活动强烈的城镇地区,风险增加滞后区主要在气候温暖湿润、植被覆盖度较高的南部地区。相较于自然发展及耕地保护而言,生态保护情景的低风险面积为11.939×10^(3)km^(2),更适合曲靖市的可持续发展。因此,尽管曲靖市景观生态风险等级低,但生态风险调控任务依然艰巨。
Qujing City serves as a vital ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and Pearl River.Due to the combined impacts of climate change and human activities,regional ecological risks are becoming increasingly prominent.Conducting landscape ecological risk assessment and optimization research under multiple scenarios is crucial for regional ecological risk prevention and the formulation of effective policies.The study aims to analyze and simulate land use and landscape ecological risk in the source area of Qujing City,which is vital for preventing regional ecological risks and formulating effective policies.Utilizing land use data from 1980,2000,and 2020,the research employs the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation(PLUS)landscape ecological risk model along with multi-scenario simulation and landscape ecological risk evaluation methods.This comprehensive approach enables an analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamic changes in land use and landscape ecological risk from 1980 to 2040 in the source area of Qujing City,while also summarizing the driving mechanisms behind these changes.The results indicate that:(1)The landscape ecological risk level in Qujing City is low,with a mean landscape ecological risk of approximately 0.015.Over 70%of the area falls within the low and lower risk levels,suggesting a relatively high regional ecological status and generally good ecological security.There is a significant spatial difference in landscape ecological risk between the"north and south,"with a clear concentration.This shows a centripetal pattern of high-risk areas around the dam zone,while low-risk areas are predominantly located in the mountainous regions.(2)Stable high-risk areas are mainly distributed around the reservoir zones,while risk-vulnerable areas are concentrated in urban areas with intense human activities.Risk-increasing lag zones are primarily found in the warmer and wetter southern regions,which have higher vegetation coverage.(3)Compared to natural development and farmland protection scenarios,the low-risk areas in the ecological protection scenario cover 11.939×10^(3)km^(2),which is more suitable for the sustainable development of Qujing City.Therefore,despite the relatively low ecological risk level in Qujing City,ecological risk regulation tasks remain challenging.
作者
高庆彦
潘玉君
吴仕海
朱海燕
许路艳
刘化
李东林
GAO Qingyan;PAN Yujun;WU Shihai;ZHU Haiyan;XU Luyan;LIU Hua;LI Donglin(Faculty of Geography and Tourism,Qujing Normal University,Qujing 655011,Yunnan,China;Department of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
北大核心
2025年第8期3273-3283,共11页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
云南省地方本科高校基础研究联合专项项目(202101BA070001-279)
云南省基础研究计划青年项目(202301AU070003)
曲靖市科技创新联合专项(KJLH2023YB13)。
关键词
环境学
土地利用
景观生态风险
优化调控
曲靖市
environmentalology
land use
landscape ecological risk
optimization and regulation
Qujing City
