摘要
当前中国城市群是PM_(2.5)人口暴露高风险高聚集地,为开展“一城一策”的大气污染治理战略,基于2000~2021年PM_(2.5)遥感反演数据,利用人口暴露风险模型和空间自相关方法,分析中国城市群PM_(2.5)人口暴露风险时空演变特征,以平均气温、年降水量和环境规制等8种影响因子为自变量,结合地理探测器和时空地理加权回归模型对中国城市群PM_(2.5)人口暴露风险驱动机制进行时空分异探究.结果表明:(1)2000~2021年,中国城市群PM_(2.5)人口暴露风险时序变化幅度较小.(2)2000~2021年,中国城市群PM_(2.5)人口暴露风险空间变化显著,PM_(2.5)人口暴露高风险区集中在京津冀城市群、长三角城市群和山西中部城市群等,且中国城市群PM_(2.5)人口暴露风险在空间上呈现出显著的正相关,空间集聚特征明显.(3)人口密度较低的城市群暴露风险受年降水量和年均气温因子影响较大,人口密度较高的城市群受人口密度和环境规制因子影响较大.工业产业结构和人口密度因子对中国城市群PM_(2.5)人口暴露风险起正向增强作用.能源消耗和环境规制因子起负向抑制作用.年均风速及年降水量因子主要对天山北坡城市群人口暴露风险起正向增强作用,对其余城市群起负向抑制作用.年均气温及植被覆盖度因子与中国东南部城市群人口暴露风险主要呈负相关关系,与北部城市群呈正相关关系.研究结果可为中国城市群大气环境管理和污染防控提供科学依据.
At present,China's urban agglomerations are high-risk and high-risk clusters of PM_(2.5) population exposure.Based on the remote sensing data of PM_(2.5) from 2000 to 2021,this study analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of PM_(2.5) population exposure risk in urban agglomerations in China by using the population exposure risk model and spatial autocorrelation method and used seven factors such as average temperature,annual precipitation,and per capita GDP as independent variables,combined with geographic detectors and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression models to explore the spatial differentiation mechanism of PM_(2.5) population exposure risk.The results showed that:①From 2000 to 2021,the temporal range of PM_(2.5) exposure risk in urban agglomerations in China was small.②From 2000 to 2021,the PM_(2.5) population exposure risk of China's urban agglomerations changed significantly in space,and the high-risk areas of PM_(2.5) population exposure were concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,and the central Shanxi urban agglomeration,and the PM_(2.5) population exposure risk in China's urban agglomerations showed a marked positive correlation in space,and the spatial agglomeration characteristics were obvious.③The exposure risk of urban agglomerations with low population density was greatly affected by annual precipitation and annual average temperature,while urban agglomerations with high population density were greatly affected by population density and environmental regulatory factors.Industrial structure and population density factors played a positive role in enhancing the population exposure risk of PM_(2.5) in urban agglomerations,energy consumption and environmental regulation factors played a negative inhibiting effect,and annual average wind speed and annual precipitation factors mainly played a positive role in enhancing and negatively inhibiting the population exposure risk of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.The results of this study provide a scientific basis for atmospheric environment management and pollution prevention and control in urban agglomerations in China.
作者
张军
刘磊玉
张腾飞
耿雅妮
ZHANG Jun;LIU Lei-yu;ZHANG Teng-fei;GENG Ya-ni(Shannxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region,Ministry of Education,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China)
出处
《环境科学》
北大核心
2025年第8期5000-5012,共13页
Environmental Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41771215)
旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室(长安大学)开放基金项目(300102290504)
陕西省教育厅重点实验室项目(20JS010)。
