摘要
为了科学研判城市土地市场的供需动态及其内在规律,本文根据城镇土地开发利用理论,采用熵权法(客观赋权)与层次分析法(主观赋权)相结合的综合权重赋值策略,构建了一个兼具科学性与实用性的城市土地需求价值综合评估模型。基于这一模型,本研究充分利用杭州市人房地一体化智慧平台所汇聚的多源、实时、高精度城市运行数据,选取杭州市区范围内多个具有代表性的典型板块作为实证研究对象。通过模型计算,精准测算了各板块的土地需求价值指数,并进一步运用聚类分析方法对这些板块进行了科学分类与特征识别。同时,还引入了空间自相关分析方法,对杭州市多个板块的土地需求价值及其核心驱动指标进行了空间统计分析。研究表明,土地需求价值空间分布格局与杭州市土地市场的实际发展状况高度吻合,有力验证了该模型良好的现实解释力与实际可操作性;不同板块间的土地需求价值存在显著的空间正相关性,呈现出明显的空间聚集效应,且关键指标之间也表现出较强的空间依赖性和互动关系。
To scientifically assess the supply and demand dynamics and inherent patterns of the urban land market,this paper develops a comprehensive evaluation model for urban land demand value that integrates scientific rigor with practical applicability.Grounded in urban land development and utilization theories,the research adopts an integrated weighting strategy of combining the entropy weight method(for objective weighting)and Analytic Hierarchy Process(for subjective weighting)to determine evaluation indicator weights.Using this model,the research makes full use of multi-source,real-time,and high-precision urban operation data aggregated by Hangzhou Human Housing and Land Platform.It selects several representative typical urban blocks within the Hangzhou urban area as the objects of empirical research.The land demand value index of each block is precisely calculated through model computation.Furthermore,cluster analysis is applied to categorize these blocks and identify their characteristic profiles.Concurrently,spatial autocorrelation analysis is introduced to examine land demand values and their key driving indicators across multiple blocks in Hangzhou.The results show that the spatial distribution pattern of land demand value is highly consistent with the actual development of Hangzhou's land market,which strongly verifies the model's good practical explanatory power and operability.There is a significant positive spatial correlation in land demand value among different blocks,showing an obvious spatial agglomeration effect,and key indicators also exhibit strong spatial dependence and interactive relationships.
作者
毛珍珍
朱雨琛
周海伟
MAO Zhenzhen;ZHU Yuchen;ZHOU Haiwei(Hangzhou Real Estate Development Research Center,Hangzhou 310000,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《自然资源情报》
2025年第8期57-64,共8页
Natural Resources Information
关键词
土地需求价值
熵权法
层次分析法
聚类分析
空间自相关
land demand value
entropy weight method
Analytic Hierarchy Process
cluster analysis
spatial autocorrelation
