摘要
本文提出了一个囊括新能源电力、化石能源电力、化石能源生产和贸易以及碳排放的多地区多行业一般均衡模型,量化研究了中国新能源发电对地区经济和碳排放的影响。论文提出了分解各地区实际收入变化和碳排放变化的方法,揭示了新能源发电影响各地区经济和碳排放的关键渠道。结果表明,2011~2022年我国新能源发电量增长使得我国实际国内生产总值增长1.44%,单位实际国内生产总值碳排放量下降5.24%,能解释期间内现实中单位实际国内生产总值碳排放量下降的近1/5。新能源发电量增长有效缩小了我国地区间的人均收入差距,推动电力密集型行业向西部地区聚集,促进西部地区经济增长与东中部地区产业结构升级,助力区域协调发展。电力贸易成本的下降将提升新能源发电对我国实际国内生产总值增长的作用。实现“十四五”规划新能源发电目标将使我国实际国内生产总值增长5.31%,单位实际国内生产总值碳排放量下降18.57%,显著改善了区域间收入差距。
This paper develops a multi-regional,multi-sectoral general equilibrium model incorporating new energy power,traditional power,fossil energy production and trade,as well as carbon emissions.We quantify the impact of new energy generation on regional economies and carbon emissions in China.This paper introduces a method for decomposing changes in real income and carbon emissions across regions,revealing the main mechanisms through which new energy generation affects regional economies and carbon emissions.We find that from 2011 to 2022,the growth of new energy generation contributed to a 1.44%increase in China's real GDP and a 5.24%decrease in carbon emissions per unit of real CDP,accounting for nearly one-fifth of the observed decline in carbon emissions per unit of real CDP during this period.The increase in new energy generation has effectively narrowed the per capita income gap between regions,leading to a concentration of energy-intensive industries in the western regions,promoting economic growth in the west and upgrading the industrial structure in the central and eastern regions,thereby balancing regional development.The reduction in electricity transmission costs will enhance the role of new energy generation in driving real GDP growth in China.Achieving the new energy generation targets set in the"14"Five-Year Plan"is expected to result in a 5.31%increase in real CDP and an 18.57%reduction in carbon emissions per unit of real CDP,significantly narrowing regional income disparity.
作者
段玉婉
吴承骏
蔡龙飞
Duan Yuwan;Wu Chengjun;Cai Longfei(Sehool of International Trade and Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of International Business,Southwestem University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《管理世界》
北大核心
2025年第8期1-17,91,共18页
Journal of Management World
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“‘双碳’目标下我国对外贸易绿色低碳发展路径及政策优化研究”(基金号22CJY019)的资助。
关键词
量化空间模型
新能源电力
国内生产网络
碳排放
地区间收入差距
quantitative spatial model
new energy power
domestic production network
carbon emissions
regional income gap
