摘要
在发达经济体大力推动“制造业回流”、加速“机器换人”的背景下,本文系统考察了其机器人普及对中国贸易与福利的多重影响。首先,基于特征事实分析,证实了政策诱导的“生产回流”现象,并发现发达经济体机器人渗透率的提升降低了中国对这些国家的出口规模。为剖析其内在机制,本文在量化贸易空间模型中引入机器人变量,将机器人价格内生化,并将使用成本细分为购置成本与调整成本。借助该模型,本文从机器人技术水平与调整成本变动两个维度,全面评估发达经济体机器人应用对中国贸易和福利的冲击。反事实模拟显示:发达经济体的机器人调整成本下降抑制了中国出口,但对福利的影响较小。发达经济体的机器人技术进步对中国影响更为复杂,一方面,减少出口贸易并损害福利;另一方面,显著降低机器人生产成本和市场价格,促使中国增加机器人进口降低生产成本,从而部分抵消前述负面效应。进一步研究表明,中国自身的机器人应用可以缓冲外部自动化冲击。就政策比较而言,提高国内机器人技术水平对出口扩张和福利增进的拉动最为显著;降低调整成本则主要提升高技能劳动者工资,对福利的作用相对较小;若二者同步推进,则抵消效应最为强劲。本文的结论不仅为衡量全球机器人应用的跨国溢出效应提供了新的理论依据与实证支撑,也为中国制定应对发达经济体机器人冲击的多维政策组合提供了重要参考。
In the current context of weak global economic recovery and complex international situations,some developed economies need to respond to the rising domestic discourse on"reindustrialization"while facing pressure from the continuously rising labor costs of outsourced production bases.With abundant capital and technological advantages,these countries are intensively introducing industrial policies to promote the"return"of manufacturing and accelerate the comprehensive process of"machine substitution".The application of robots in developed countries significantly enhances their production efficiency and reshapes their competitive advantages,while simultaneously reducing the importance of comparative advantages in labor costs,thereby weakening the ability of developing countries to participate in the global division of labor and consequently compressing their gains from trade.Given China's pivotal position in the global value chains(GVCs)and its retention of typical developing country characteristics,will automation in developed economies have adverse impacts on China's trade and welfare?This paper integrates reduced-form and structural methods to systematically investigate the impact of robot applications in developed countries on China's trade and welfare.In terms of the reduced-form estimation,this paper uses the two-stage least squares(2SLS)method to study how the application of robots in developed countries affects China's exports based on provincial panel data from China from 2009 to 2019.In terms of structural estimation,this paper introduces robot variables into the quantified trade model,endogenizing robot prices and breaking down the usage costs into purchase costs and adjustment costs.With the help of this model,this paper comprehensively assesses the impact of robotization in advanced economies on China's trade and welfare in two dimensions:the upgrading of robot technology and the changes in adjustment costs.This paper finds that the use of robots in developed countries significantly reduces China's export scale to developed countries.Mechanism analysis further reveals that the impact of robot application on China's exports of different categories of products shows significant heterogeneity:It has a negative impact on the export of final products such as capital goods and consumer goods while promoting the export of simple intermediate goods,and the impact on complex intermediate goods is not yet significant.Counterfactual simulation results show that the decline in adjustment costs of robots in developed economies suppresses China's exports,but the effect on welfare is relatively small.The advancement of robot technology in developed economies has a more complex impact on China:On one hand,it reduces exports and harms welfare;on the other hand,it significantly lowers the production costs and prices of robots,prompting China to increase its robot imports to reduce production costs,thereby partially offsetting the aforementioned negative effects.Further research indicates that China's robotization can buffer external automation shocks.In terms of policy comparison,improving domestic robot technology levels has the most significant pull for export expansion and welfare enhancement;reducing adjustment costs mainly raises the wages of high-skilled workers,with a relatively smaller effect on welfare;if both are advanced simultaneously,the offsetting effect is the strongest.This paper proposes the following policy implications based on the research conclusions.Firstly,efforts should be made to increase R&D in robot technology and reduce the adjustment costs of using robots.Secondly,the layout of the GVCs should be optimized,actively expanding into diversified markets.Finally,there should be a strong emphasis on enhancing human capital development to promote inclusivegrowth.
作者
张天顶
淦苏美
ZHANG Tian-ding;GAN Su-mei(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University)
出处
《中国工业经济》
北大核心
2025年第7期5-24,共20页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展阶段伟大实践与发展经济学理论创新研究”(批准号21&ZD071)。
关键词
生产回流
机器人技术水平
机器人调整成本
贸易效应
福利效应
production reshoring
robotic technology levels
robot adoption costs
trade effects
welfare effects
