摘要
中心城市是区域社会经济发展的增长极,其对周边地区生产、生活、生态功能协同提升的示范作用至关重要.本文以长三角中心城市南京市为例,构建“三生”功能评价指标体系,测算2012—2022年的“三生”功能;利用地理探测器模型识别功能演变的影响因素;借助空间自相关模型探索生产、生活、生态功能间的权衡/协同关系;运用PLUS模型预测2032年的南京市“三生”功能格局,提出格局优化策略.主要结果包括:①南京市“三生”功能整体存在退化现象,生态功能高值区的大幅减少是其主导原因.②“三生”功能间存在较大范围的低低协同区,仅生产—生态功能间的高高协同区面积较大,“三生”功能的同步提升成为功能格局优化关键.③“三生”功能演变整体受社会经济因素的影响较强,土地开发强度、GDP和城镇化水平始终是功能演变的主导因子.④自然发展情境下,2032年南京市“三生”功能高值区显著退化,但市域主城区及其周边的综合功能有所提升.本文认为市域综合功能薄弱区的“三生”功能全面提升、主城区的生态功能优化、乡村地区的生活功能提升和生态功能维持是南京市“三生”功能格局优化的重要方向.
The central city is the growth pole of regional socio-economic development,and its demonstrative role in synergizing and enhancing the production,living and ecological functions of the surrounding areas is crucial.This paper takes Nanjing,the center city of the Yangtze River Delta,as an example,constructs the evaluation index system of the"production-living-ecological"functions,and measures the"production-living-ecological"functions from 2012 to 2022.The geographic detector model is used to identify the influencing factors of the function evolution.With the help of the spatial autocorrelation model,the tradeoffs and synergies among the production,living and ecological functions are explored.PLUS model is used to predict the functional pattern of the"production-living-ecological"in Nanjing in 2032,and strategies to optimize the pattern are proposed.Key findings include:①There is an overall degradation of the"production-living-ecological"functions in Nanjing,and the drastic reduction of ecological function high value areas is the leading cause.②There exists a large range of low-low synergy zones among the"production-living-ecological"functions,and only the high-high synergy zones between the production and ecological functions have a large area,so the simultaneous enhancement of the"production-living-ecological"functions has become the key to the optimization of the functional pattern.③The overall evolution of the"production-living-ecological"functions is strongly influenced by socio-economic factors,with the intensity of land development,GDP and the level of urbanization always being the dominant factors in the evolution of the functions.④Under the natural development scenario,in 2032,the high-value areas of the"production-living-ecological"functions in Nanjing will be significantly degraded,but the comprehensive functions of the main urban area of the city and its surroundings will be improved.This paper concludes that the overall improvement of the"production-living-ecological"functions in the weak integrated function areas of the city,the optimization of ecological functions in the main urban areas,and the improvement of living functions and the maintenance of ecological functions in the rural areas are the important directions for the optimization of the"production-living-ecological"functional pattern in Nanjing.
作者
杜小娅
杨欣蕾
方斌
Du Xiaoya;Yang Xinlei;Fang Bin(Jiangsu Land Development and Consolidation Center,Nanjing 210017,China;School of Geography,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Research Center of New Urbanization and Land Problem,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China)
出处
《南京师大学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第4期14-25,共12页
Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42071229、41671174)、江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目(164320H116).
关键词
“三生”功能
权衡/协同
模拟预测
格局优化
南京市
"production-living-ecological"functions
tradeoffs/synergies
simulation forecast
pattern optimization
Nanjing city
