摘要
在“保序”假定基础上,提出全局监督主成分评价法,该方法不仅解决了特征向量符号不确定问题,还在评价中融合了辅助信息(客观事实);构建“数字经济能否打破地理限制”的检验方法,同时探究空间集聚性与时空收敛性;基于Dagum基尼系数等分析区域差异,提出用耦合度度量经济区内部差异,这为小样本地区差异测度提供借鉴。运用上述方法对中国30省份、8个经济区、3个经济带数字经济发展水平与实力进行评价,给出“水平”转换为“实力”的一般方法。主要结论有:无论是数字经济发展水平还是实力,东部地区明显领先,京、沪两市数字经济发展水平更为突出,粤、苏、浙实力更强,而青、甘、新等西部省份实力弱、水平低;就数字经济发展水平而言,渝、赣、贵、黑等排名进步较大,闽、琼、宁、蒙、青、新等排名退步较大,新冠疫情对数字经济影响较小,从2019年到2020年,只有琼、闽、川略有下降,其余省份仍在提高;中国数字经济发展水平地区差异波动下降,东部>西部>中部,区间Gini系数贡献率约为70%,主要取决于东-中、东-西的地区差异;中国数字经济发展水平具有空间集聚效应,但集聚程度显著低于经济发展水平的集聚程度,实证检验结果表明,数字经济可以在一定程度上打破地理限制;全国、三大地区都存在绝对与条件β收敛,经济发展水平提高有效促进了各区域数字经济增长,而政府干预仅促进了西部地区数字经济增长,对其余区域有抑制作用,但影响不显著;从2013年到2020年,数字经济发展水平排名前3的经济区依次为:东部沿海→南部沿海→北部沿海,西北始终排在最后,就内部差异而言,北部沿海最大;在数字经济实力方面有类似结论。
A global supervised principal component evaluation method is proposed based on the assump-tion of"order preservation".This method not only solves the problem of uncertainty of eigenvectors sym-bols,but also integrates auxiliary information(objective facts)in the evaluation.This paper constructs a testing method for whether the digital economy can break geographical limitations,while exploring spatial agglomeration and spatiotemporal convergence.It analyzes regional differences based on methods such as Gini coefficient,and proposes using coupling degree to measure internal differences within economic zones,which provides reference for measuring regional differences in small sample areas.These methods are used to evaluate the development level and strength of digital economy in 30 provinces,8 economic zones and 3 economic belts in China,and the general method of transforming"level"into"strength"is given.The main conclusions are as follows:The eastern region is clearly leading in both the level and strength of digital economy development,with Beijing and Shanghai having a more prominent level of digital economy development,and Guangdong,Jiangsu,and Zhejiang having stronger strength.However,western provinces such as Qinghai,Gansu,and Xinjiang have weak strength and low level.As far as the development level of digital economy is concerned,Chongqing,Jiangxi,Guizhou and Heilongjiang have made great progress in ranking,while Fujian,Hainan,Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Qinghai and Xinjiang have retreated a lot.The COVID-19 has little impact on the digital economy.From 2019 to 2020,only Hainan,Fujian and Sichuan have slightly declined,and the rest of the provinces are still improving.The regional differences in the development level of China's digital economy have fluctuated and decreased,with the East greater than the West and the West greater than the central part.The contribution rate of interval Gini coefficient is about 70%,which mainly depends on the regional differences between the eastern and central regions,as well as the eastern and western regions.The development level of China's digital economy has a spatial agglomeration effect,but the degree of agglomeration is significantly lower than that of the economic development level.The empirical test results show that digital economy can break the geographical restrictions to a certain extent.There are absolute and conditional beta convergence in China and the three regions.The improvement of economic development level has effectively promoted the growth of digital economy in all regions.However,government intervention only promotes the growth of digital economy in the western region,and has a certain inhibitory effect on other regions,but the impact is not significant.From 2013 to 2020,the top three economic zones in the development level of digital economy are the eastern coast,southern coast,and northern coast in order,and the Great Northwest always ranks last.In terms of internal differences,the northern coast is the largest.There are similar conclusions in terms of digital economic strength.
作者
魏艳华
马立平
王丙参
徐生霞
WEI Yan-hua;MA Li-ping;WANG Bing-can;XU Sheng-xia(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Tianshui Normal University,Tianshui 741001,China;School of Statistics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)
出处
《数理统计与管理》
北大核心
2025年第4期681-703,共23页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
基金
甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目(2024YB104)。
关键词
数字经济
全局监督主成分评价法
区域差异
空间集聚
收敛
digital economy
global supervision principal component evaluation method
regional dif-ferences
spatial agglomeration
convergence
