摘要
在当前城市建筑环境日益复杂的背景下,城市建筑群一旦遭受地震打击而发生功能中断,其灾害影响会迅速通过社会链传播并加剧。为了量化震损建筑群的功能中断,该文聚焦于评估震后城市建筑群的功能恢复时间,并构建了一个综合评估框架。该框架采用模糊层次分析法,量化了建筑装修等级,地区经济、气候和地形地貌等关键因素对恢复进程的影响。此外,研究将城市建筑群的恢复进程划分为准备阶段和维修与重建阶段,并为每个阶段建立了系统的评估模型。在准备阶段,评估模型特别考虑了地震应急期的影响,并根据地震预期作用强度,系统地梳理了不同强度作用下5项关键恢复准备事项所需的时间;维修、重建阶段的评估模型则是基于震损房屋的破坏面积以及每平方米维修或重建所需的时间进行构建的。该模型通过深入分析定额数据,初步估算了我国不同建筑结构类型房屋的单位面积重建时间,并采用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)模拟方法考虑了施工过程中的不确定性,而房屋的单位面积维修时间是基于其破坏程度对重建时间进行合理折减得出的。该研究成果不仅为城市灾害管理理论提供了新的视角,同时也为政府和企业的韧性建设和灾后快速制定恢复决策提供了良好的数据支撑。
In the current context of increasingly constructed urban built environments,the disaster impacts of functional disruptions in urban buildings hit by earthquakes can quickly propagate and intensify through the social chain.To quantify the functional disruption of earthquake-damaged building complexes,this paper focuses on assessing the functional recovery time of urban building complexes after an earthquake and develops a comprehensive assessment framework.The framework employs a fuzzy hierarchical analysis to quantify the impact of key factors,such as building renovation class,regional economy,climate,and topography,on the recovery process.Additionally,the study divides the rehabilitation process of the urban complex into a preparation phase and a repair and reconstruction phase,and develops a systematic assessment model for each phase.In the preparation stage,the assessment model especially considered the impact of the earthquake emergency period and systematically sorted out the time required for five key recovery preparations under different intensities of effects according to the expected intensity of earthquake effects;the assessment model for the repair and reconstruction stage was constructed based on the damaged area of the earthquake-damaged houses as well as the time required for repairing or reconstructing per square meter.The model preliminarily estimates the reconstruction time per unit area of houses of different building structure types in China through in-depth analysis of the quota data,and takes into account the uncertainties in the construction process by using the Monte Carlo simulation method.And the repair time per unit area of a house is derived by reasonably discounting the reconstruction time based on its damage degree.The research results not only provide new perspectives for the theory of urban disaster management,but also provide good data support for the resilience building of the government and enterprises and the rapid development of recovery decisions after disasters.
作者
王楠
孙柏涛
张桂欣
WANG Nan;SUN Baitao;ZHANG Guixin(Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China;Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation,Ministry of Emergency Management,Harbin 150080,China;Key Laboratory of Life Search and Rescue Technology for Earthquake and Geological Disaster,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《地震工程与工程振动》
北大核心
2025年第4期1-12,共12页
Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3003600)
黑龙江省重点研发计划项目(GA22C001)
中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室重点专项(2021EEEVL0203)。
