摘要
厘清新型城镇化与低碳发展的动态交互响应关系对于实现城市的可持续发展具有重要意义.基于2011—2022年中国30个省份面板数据,采用灰色关联度模型和面板自向量回归模型,测度了新型城镇化与低碳发展的协同关系及影响二者协同发展的因素,并深入探讨其交互响应机制.研究结果表明:新型城镇化与低碳发展的关联性正在由中等密切向高等密切演进;资源环境与城乡统筹是影响两者协同发展的关键因素;短期内,两者均未达到自身的可持续协调发展状态,但相互之间存在促进响应机制,其中低碳发展对新型城镇化的促进响应存在滞后性.从长期来看,二者尚未形成稳定的良性互动关系,均依赖于各自的发展惯性.
Clarifying the dynamic interactive response relationshippbetween new-type urbanization and low-carbon development is of great significance for achieving sustainable urban development.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022,the grey correlation model and panel autovector regression model are used to measure the synergistic relationship between new-type urbanization and low-carbon development,as well as the factors influencing their coordinated development.And the interactive response mechanism is explored in depth.The research results show that the correlation between new-type urbanization and lowcarbon development is evolving from medium closeness to high closeness.Resource environment and urban-rural integration are key factors affecting their synergistic development.In the short term,neither of them has achieved its own sustainable and coordinated development state,but there is a promotion response mechanism between each other,among which the promotion response of low-carbon development on new-type urbanization is lagging.In the long term,the two have not yet formed a stable and benign interactive relationship,and both rely on their own development inertia.
作者
韩立红
梁晓阳
HAN Lihong;LIANG Xiaoyang(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China)
出处
《西安文理学院学报(自然科学版)》
2025年第2期104-111,共8页
Journal of Xi’an University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2023QD070)。
关键词
新型城镇化
低碳发展
灰色关联
PVAR模型
new-type urbanization
low-carbon development
grey correlation
PVAR model
