摘要
受国内储量不足、国际竞争加剧等因素影响,我国新能源关键矿产资源面临较大的供应风险.该文从资源安全、市场安全、竞争安全、国际环境安全、自然环境安全5个维度选取11项指标,构建供应安全评价体系.以铜、锂、钴、镍矿为例,运用SMAA-TRI方法对中国2005—2022年新能源关键矿产资源的供应风险进行评价,并根据ARIMA预测模型实现2023—2035年新能源关键矿产资源的供应安全预警.研究发现:由于资源保障度和储采比等指标的下滑,2005—2035年铜的供应安全等级由中等安全度下降至低安全度,预计2035年供应安全水平相对紧张;由于面临进口依存度高、价格波动大等问题,2005—2035年锂的供应安全等级在中等安全度附近波动,预计2035年供应安全水平相对可控;2005—2035年钴的供应安全等级由中低安全度下降至低安全度,主要是因为储量的稀缺、高进口依存度以及进口来源国经济自由度低、政治稳定性差,预计2035年供应安全水平处在危险边缘;2005—2035年镍的供应安全等级由高安全度大幅下降至低安全度,主要是因为近年来我国镍资源储量明显下降以及进口来源国政治稳定性的持续下滑,预计2035年供应安全水平仍十分低迷.
Under the influence of insufficient domestic reserves and intensified international competition,the critical mineral resources of new energy in China are facing greater supply risks.This paper establishes a supply security evaluation system by selecting 11 indicators across five dimensions:resource security,market security,competitive security,international environmental security,and natural environmental security.Taking copper,lithium,cobalt and nickel as examples,the study adopts the SMAA-TRI method to evaluate the supply risk of China's new energy critical mineral resources during 2005-2022,and utilizes the ARIMA prediction model to achieve a early-warning of the supply security during 2023-2035.The results show that due to the decline of resource security and reserve-production ratio,the grade of copper supply security from 2005 to 2035 decreases from medium to low,and the supply security level is expected to be relatively tight in 2035.Due to problems such as high import dependence and large price fluctuations,the supply security level of lithium from 2005 to 2035 fluctuates around the medium security level,and the supply security level is expected to be relatively controllable in 2035.From 2005 to 2035,the security level of cobalt supply decreases from medium to low security,mainly because of the scarcity of reserves,high import dependence,low economic freedom and poor political stability of the import source countries,and the supply security level in 2035 is expected to be at the brink of danger.From 2005 to 2035,the grade of nickel supply security decreases significantly from high security to low security,mainly because of the obvious decline in China's nickel resource reserves in recent years and the continuous decline in the political stability of the import source countries,and the supply security level is expected to remain very low in 2035.
作者
成金华
周文潇
沈鹏程
黄民
李冶
CHENG Jinhua;ZHOU Wenxiao;SHEN Pengcheng;HUANG Min;LI Ye(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Emissions Trading System Co-Constructed by the Province and Ministry,Hubei University Of Economics,Wuhan 430205,China;School of Information Engineering,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《华中师范大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第4期611-623,共13页
Journal of Central China Normal University:Natural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目(71991482)
国家社会科学基金青年项目(24CGL100).
