摘要
目的分析2014—2022年北京市大兴区手足口病流行特征,评价新冠疫情期间综合非药物干预措施(non-pharmaceutical interventions,NPIs)对大兴区手足口病发病影响。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统获取2014—2022年大兴区手足口病报告病例信息,采用描述流行病学方法分析手足口病分布特征。应用R4.4.2建立SARIMA模型,用2014—2019年数据作为测试集,预测2020—2022年不同年龄组月发病数,并与同期实际报告数据进行比较。结果2014—2022年大兴区累计报告21774例手足口病病例,呈隔年高发的特征,2014—2019年发病率在119.52/10万(2017年)~406.28/10万(2014年),主高峰在5—8月,次高峰在11月;2020—2022年发病率在10.76/10万(2022年)~43.67/10万(2021年),季节性不明显。发病年龄呈逐年增大趋势,0~2岁组发病占比由2014年49.03%降至2022年32.66%,呈逐年下降趋势(χ^(2)趋势=-2.089,P<0.05);≥6岁组发病占比由2014年的10.00%增加至2022年的31.66%,呈逐年上升趋势(χ^(2)趋势=2.944,P<0.05)。2020—2022年报告数均低于预测数,差异幅度分别为90.16%、66.47%、91.34%。2020年和2022年0~2岁、3~5岁和≥6岁组差异幅度在87%以上,2021年0~2岁组差异幅度最高,为74.64%,3~5岁组差异幅度最低,为57.27%。结论大兴区手足口病发病年龄呈增大趋势。新冠疫情期间受NPIs影响,手足口病发病数下降,2020年和2022年下降幅度大,2021年下降幅度相对较小,不同年龄组存在差异;手足口病季节性规律发生变化。应加强手足口病监测工作,关注新冠疫情后手足口病流行趋势变化。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Daxing district of Beijing from 2014 to 2022,and evaluate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)on HFMD during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic.MethodsThe data of HFMD cases reported in Daxing district from 2014 to 2022 were collected from the Chinese Infectious Diseases Surveillance Information System,and the descriptive epidemiological method were used to analyze the distributions of cases.R Studio was used to construct the SARIMA model,and the information of 2014-2019 was used as the test data to predict the monthly number of cases by age groups from 2020 to 2022.The observed result were compared with the predicted number.ResultsFrom 2014 to 2022,a total of 21774 HFMD cases were reported in Daxing district and characterized as high incidence rate every other year.The incidence rate from 2014 to 2019 ranged from119.52 per 100000(2017)to 406.28 per 100000(2014).The main incidence peaks occurred within May to August with the secondary peaks in November.The incidence rates from 2020 to 2022 ranged from 10.76 per 100,000(2022)to 43.67 per 100,000(2021)with no obvious seasonality.The ages of disease onset showed a trend of increasing year by year.The proportion of HFMD 0-2 years old group decreased from 49.03%in 2014 to 32.66%in 2022,showing a downward trend(χ_(trend)^(2)=-2.089,P<0.05),while the proportion in≥6 years old group increased from10.00%in 2014 to 31.66%in 2022,showing an upward trend(χ_(trend)^(2)=2.944,P<0.05).The reported cases were significantly lower than the predicted cases from 2020 to 2022 with the reduction ratios as 90.16%,66.47%and 91.34%,respectively.In 2020 and 2022,the reduction ratios were above 87%among 0-2 years old,3-6 years old and≥6 years old group,but in 2021,the ratio in 0-2 years old group was 74.64%,while the ratio in 3-5 years old group was 57.27%,as the lowest.ConclusionsThe age of disease onset of HFMD in Daxing district showed a trend of increasing.During COVID-19 pandemic,HMFD case number declined due to NPIs.The scales of decline were large in 2020 and 2022,and relatively smaller in 2021.These changes were different in the age groups.The changes in seasonality of HFMD was also observed.It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance of HFMD,and pay more attention to the epidemic trend after the COVID-19 pandemic.
作者
唐金凤
甘亚弟
高艳青
刘美辰
吴波峰
崔虹艳
王新宇
李梦楠
刘琪
王小莉
Tang Jinfeng;Gan Yadi;Gao Yanqing;Liu Meichen;Wu Bofeng;Cui Hongyan;Wang Xinyu;Li Mengnan;Liu Qi;Wang Xiaoli(Department of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Prevention and Control,Daxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102600,China;Beijing Office of Global Health,Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100013,China)
出处
《国际病毒学杂志》
北大核心
2025年第3期218-222,共5页
International Journal of Virology
基金
首都卫生发展科研专项(2024-2G-3016)
高层次公共卫生技术人才建设项目培养计划(学科骨干-01-019)。
关键词
手足口病
流行特征
新冠肺炎
NPIs
SARIMA
Hand,foot,and mouth disease
Epidemiological characteristic
COVID-19
NPIs
SARIMA
