摘要
幼发拉底河—底格里斯河流域水资源争端呈现出国际、国内和非国家行为体三个层面交织的多重博弈。国际层面,土耳其将水资源战略化以扩大地区影响力,而下游国家叙利亚和伊拉克采取了各具特色的差异化水外交应对策略以抗衡土耳其的水资源霸权。国内层面,三国均面临水资源与政治、民族关系和经济发展紧密关联的治理困境。土耳其将东南安纳托利亚项目转化为应对库尔德问题的战略工具;叙利亚长期将水资源政策作为巩固政权合法性和推进民族同化的政治工具;伊拉克则陷入中央政府治理能力不足与库尔德自治区分权失衡的双重困境。非国家行为体层面,农业部落、反政府武装组织和恐怖组织的介入使水资源博弈更加复杂化,加剧了区域水资源安全风险。为实现幼发拉底河—底格里斯河流域的水资源安全,可通过建立具有法律约束力的全流域条约、推进各国水资源治理体系的适应性改革以及多层次联合安全机制建设,构建涵盖国际协调机制、国内政治改革与非国家行为体管控的全方位综合治理框架。
The water resource disputes within the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin manifest as a complex,multi-layered game structure intricately interwoven across international,domestic and non-state actor dimensions.At the international stratum,Türkiye strategically leverages water resources as an instrument to augment its regional influence.In response,the downstream countries,namely Syria and Iraq,have formulated and implemented differentiated water diplomacy strategies,each tailored to counter Türkiye’s water hegemony.Domestically,all three nations grapple with governance quandaries,as water resources are inextricably linked to political dynamics,ethnic relations and economic development trajectories.Specifically,Türkiye has effectively transformed the Southeastern Anatolia Project(GAP)into a strategic apparatus to address the Kurdish issue;Syria has historically utilized water resource policies as a political means to reinforce regime legitimacy and facilitate ethnic assimilation;and Iraq confronts the dual challenges of a central government with limited governance capacity and power imbalances in the Kurdistan region.At the non-state actors level,the active participation of agricultural tribes,anti-government armed groups,and terrorist organizations has significantly escalated the complexity of the water resources game,thereby exacerbating the risks to regional water security.To attain sustainable water security in the Euphrates—Tigris River Basin,it is imperative to establish a legally binding basin-wide treaty,promote adaptive reforms to national water governance systems,and construct a multi-tiered joint counter-terrorism mechanism.These initiatives collectively aim to build a comprehensive governance framework that integrates international coordination mechanisms,domestic political reforms,and the regulation of non-state actors.
出处
《国际论坛》
北大核心
2025年第4期63-83,157,158,共23页
International Forum
基金
2024年国家社科基金项目“中东水资源争端中美国的介入机制、影响及启示研究”(项目批准号24CGJ047)的阶段性成果。
