摘要
基于河北省1982—2022年20个气象站观测资料、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积和马铃薯产量资料,采用相关分析、通径分析和残差趋势法等方法,研究了气候变化和人类活动对马铃薯产量的影响。结果表明:河北省马铃薯生育期内日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、0 cm和5 cm地温均显著升高,日照时数显著减少,降水量不显著升高,空气相对湿度不显著降低;马铃薯气象产量波动平均为中幅,2012—2022年以弱幅为主;气候变化和人类活动对马铃薯产量增加的相对贡献率分别为59.07%和40.93%,气候变化是马铃薯产量增加的主导因素。
We examined the effects of climate change and human activities on potato yield by correlation analysis,path analysis and residual trend method based on the daily meteorological observation data of 20 meteorological sta⁃tions,fertilizer application amount,effective irrigated area,and potato yield from 1982 to 2022 in Hebei Province.The results showed that daily average temperature,daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature,the temperature of 0 cm and 5 cm soil depth increased significantly,sunshine duration decreased significantly,the pre⁃cipitation and air relative humidity did not change during potato growth period.The average fluctuation of potato me⁃teorological yield was medium,with weak fluctuation during 2021-2022.The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the increase of potato yield were 59.07%and 40.93%,respectively,indicating that climate change was the leading factor for the increases of potato yield.
作者
薛思嘉
王朋朋
魏瑞江
杨梅
刘园园
李璠
XUE Sijia;WANG Pengpeng;WEI Ruijiang;YANG Mei;LIU Yuanyuan;LI fan(Hebei Provincial Meteorological and Eco-environmental Key Laboratory,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Chengde Meteorological Service,Chengde 067000,Hebei,China;Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorological Science,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
北大核心
2025年第7期2200-2206,共7页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
河北省气象局项目(21ky13)资助。
关键词
气候变化
马铃薯
产量
二次指数平滑法
残差趋势法
climate change
potato
yield
quadratic exponential smoothing method
residual trend method
