摘要
伴随区域数字规则的发展,全球形成了复杂交织的数字服务贸易网络新格局。文章基于2005—2021年TAPED数据库的深度数字规则数据和OECD数据库的双边数字服务贸易数据,采用时态指数随机图模型(TERGM)实证研究了数字规则关联对全球数字服务贸易网络的影响。研究发现:深化数字规则关联能够促进全球数字服务贸易网络的形成,且贸易网络效应存在部门异质性,数据和知识密集型服务贸易网络更依赖于规则网络的协同演化。数字规则关联通过降低数字服务贸易限制和提高信息传递水平促进全球数字服务贸易网络的形成。基于条款内容的异质性分析发现,歧视性规则关联对数据要素密集型行业贸易网络的促进效应更大,而其他行业则主要受惠于非歧视性规则关联;规则关联的“美式模板”显著提高了数据和知识密集型贸易网络形成的概率,“欧式模板”有利于促进“个人、文化和娱乐服务”贸易网络的形成,而“中式模板”结合了电子商务和信息安全等议题,对贸易网络的形成具有普遍的促进效应。文章研究结论有助于评估全球数字治理对建立和稳定数字服务贸易关系的影响,进而为构建面向全球的数字规则“中式模板”提供了有益启示。
With the development of regional digital trade rules,a complex and intertwined new pattern of digital service trade network has been formed globally.Based on the deep digital rules data from the TAPED database and the bilateral digital services trade data from the OECD database during 2005-2021,this paper investigates the impact of digital rules interconnections on the global digital services trade network by using the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM).It is found that the deepening of digital rules interconnections facilitates the formation of global digital service trade networks,and the trade network effects exhibit sectoral heterogeneity:data-intensive and knowledge-intensive service trade networks have tighter connections with the co-evolution of rules networks.Digital rules interconnections promote the formation of global digital service trade networks by reducing restrictions on digital service trade and improving the level of information transmission.Heterogeneity analysis based on clause content reveals that discriminatory rule associations have greater promoting effects on trade networks in data-intensive industries,while other industries mainly benefit from non-discriminatory rule associations.The"American template"associated with rules significantly increases the probability of forming data-intensive and knowledge-intensive trade networks,while the"European template"is conducive to promoting the formation of personal,cultural,and entertainment service trade networks.The"Chinese template"combines issues such as e-commerce and information security,and has a universal promoting effect on the formation of trade networks.The research conclusions of the paper are helpful in evaluating the impact of global digital governance on establishing and stabilizing digital service trade relations,and provide useful insights for constructing a""Chinese template"for global digital rules.
作者
盛斌
张润琪
赵静媛
SHENG Bin;ZHANG Run-qi;ZHAO Jing-yuan(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;School of Economics,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)
出处
《现代财经(天津财经大学学报)》
北大核心
2025年第7期3-21,共19页
Modern Finance and Economics:Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金应急管理项目(BEY010132)
国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目(202306890109)。
关键词
数字规则关联
数字服务贸易网络
社会网络分析
指数随机图模型
digital rules interconnections
digital service trade network
social network analysis
exponential random graph model
