摘要
随着全球经济环境的日益复杂和技术变革的加快,产业链内卷式竞争现象在中国制造业中愈发普遍,同时加剧了产业链各个环节的企业感知风险,对产业链的稳定性和安全性产生影响。以中国新能源汽车产业链为研究对象,基于2014—2023年800家上市公司年报数据,结合BERT模型与文本分析方法量化内卷式竞争行为,并通过多元回归模型检验其与感知风险的关联,考察产业链内卷式竞争行为(创新遏制、资源囤积与市场掠夺)对企业感知风险的影响。研究发现:创新遏制、资源囤积与市场掠夺均显著加剧了企业感知风险,其中创新遏制的正向效应最为突出;产业链内卷式竞争行为对企业风险感知的影响具有异质性。研究说明内卷式竞争通过遏制、囤积、掠夺的三重机制放大了产业链感知风险,为企业破解低效竞争格局、优化政策设计提供了经验证据与解题思路。
This study analyzes empirical evidence from China’s rapidly developing new energy automobile industry and comprehensively studies the mechanism of involutional competition in the industry chain and its risk implications.In the context of China’s strategy to promote industrial upgrading and technological self-sufficiency,the study examines how the behavior of involutionary competition becomes a major challenge to the sustainable development of emerging industries.This study adopts an innovative methodology that combines BERT model-based corporate disclosure using natural language processing techniques with traditional econometric analysis.The study analyzes the 10-year annual reports of 800 listed companies in the new energy automotive industry and constructs new metrics to quantify three dimensions of involutional competition:(1)innovation suppression,identifying lexicons related to innovation containment through textual analysis,(2)resource hoarding,identifying lexicons related to resource hoarding through textual analysis,and(3)market plunder,identifying price wars and anticompetitive behaviors through textual analysis These indicators are then correlated with the firm’s perceived level of risk,which is derived from a BERT model analysis of the text in the risk disclosure section of the financial report.The major findings of this study include:first,all three involutionary behaviors significantly elevate perceived risk,with innovation suppression showing the strongest effect.Second,these behaviors demonstrate synergistic effects-innovation suppression often precedes resource hoarding,which in turn enables more aggressive market predation,resulting in a self-reinforcing cycle of competitive degradation.Third,the impact varies substantially by firm characteristics:while larger firms show greater resilience,state-owned enterprises prove particularly vulnerable to resource-related risks due to their typical positioning in upstream segments of the value chain.This study makes a multifaceted contribution to the academic literature.It advances the theoretical understanding of involutionary competition by departing from a single qualitative description and establishing measurable,behavior-specific metrics for unstructured data.The study also bridges the traditionally separated fields of competitive strategy and risk management by showing how competitive behavior directly affects an organization’s risk perception.Methodologically,it demonstrates how machine learning techniques can enhance traditional business research,particularly in analyzing unstructured corporate disclosures.From a policy perspective,the findings suggest that addressing involutionary competition requires targeted interventions.For innovation suppression,recommendations include strengthening intellectual property protections while preventing patent abuse.Regarding resource hoarding,the study highlights the need for better supply chain coordination mechanisms and strategic reserves for critical materials.To counter market predation,enhanced antitrust enforcement and industry self-regulation mechanisms appear most promising.For corporate managers,the research underscores the importance of breaking out of zero-sum competition through genuine innovation and differentiation.The negative correlation between firm growth metrics and perceived risk suggests that long-term orientation and capability-building provide more sustainable risk mitigation than short-term competitive tactics.The study focuses on China’s NEV sector provides rich context-specific insights and offers summarized experience for other emerging economies facing similar challenges of industrial upgrading amid intense competition.Future research could extend this framework to other industries and national contexts,incorporating dynamic modeling to better capture the evolutionary nature of competitive behaviors.
作者
白伟
耿晓晨
俞荣建
Bai Wei;Geng Xiaochen;Yu Rongjian(School of Economic and Management,Taizhou University,Taizhou 225300,P.R.China;School of Business Administration,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310012,P.R.China)
出处
《山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第4期191-201,共11页
Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
浙江省软科学研究计划重大项目“‘十五五’推进创新浙江建设的重大任务、重大举措研究”(2025C15019)
国家社科基金重大项目“我国产业未来发展新赛道新优势研究”(24&ZD071)。
关键词
内卷式竞争
创新遏制
资源囤积
市场掠夺
感知风险
Involutionary competition
Innovation suppression
Resource hoarding
Market predation
Risk perception
