摘要
为了对国家核证自愿减排量项目重启后的碳市场中风-火电装机容量发展趋势进行建模分析,建立了考虑国家核证自愿减排量的碳市场中风-火电装机容量发展的系统动力学模型。通过历史数据验证了模型的有效性,构建了差异化情景分析不同政策力度和技术发展速度对未来我国风-火电装机容量、消费占比的影响,并对国家核证自愿减排量抵消比例进行了敏感性分析。仿真结果表明,高政策力度情景中2030年的风-火电装机容量比高技术发展速度情景中的分别高41.83 GW、低89.41 GW,说明政策力度对风电装机容量发展的激励作用和对火电装机容量发展的抑制作用强于技术发展;高技术发展速度情景中2030年的风-火电消费占比比高政策力度情景中的分别高0.73%、低1.49%,说明技术发展对风电消费的促进作用和对火电消费的抑制作用强于政策力度;国家核证自愿减排量抵消比例从3.5%调整至6.5%的过程中,风-火电装机容量的变化幅度分别为8.27%、18.07%,当CCER抵消比例取4%时,碳市场对风电的激励作用最佳,当国家核证自愿减排量(Chinese certified emission reduction,CCER)抵消比例取3.5%时,碳市场对火电的抑制效果最佳。
In order to model and analyze the development trend of wind-thermal installed capacity in carbon markets after the resumption of the Chinese certified emission reduction(CCER)project,a system dynamics model for the development of wind-thermal installed capacity in the carbon market considering the CCER is established.The validity of the model is verified by the historical data,and differentiated scenarios are constructed to analyze the impacts of different policy support efforts and speeds of technological development in the future installed capacity and proportion of wind-thermal power consumption in China,then a sensitivity analysis of CCER offset ratio is performed.Simulative results show that the installed capacity of wind and thermal power in 2030 in the high policy strength scenario is 41.83 GW higher and 89.41 GW lower than that in the high technology development rate scenario,indicating that the policy support effort has a stronger inhibiting effect on the development of thermal power installed capacity and incentive effect on the development of wind power installed capacity than speed of technological development.The consumption ratios of wind and thermal power in 2030 in the high technology development rate scenario are 0.73%higher and 1.49%lower than those in the high policy intensity scenario,indicating that the speed of technological development has a stronger inhibiting effect on the consumption of thermal power and incentive effect on the consumption of wind power than policy support effort.In the process of adjusting the CCER offset ratio from 3.5%to 6.5%,the change of installed capacity of wind and thermal power is 8.27%and 18.07%,the carbon market has the best incentive effect on wind power when the CCER offset ratio is taken as 4%,and the carbon market has the best inhibiting effect on thermal power when the CCER offset ratio is taken as 3.5%.
作者
陈颖伦
夏沛
张晓星
张成
陈钰仁
王述祯
CHEN Yinglun;XIA Pei;ZHANG Xiaoxing;ZHANG Cheng;CHEN Yuren;WANG Shuzhen(Hubei Engineering Research Center for Safety Monitoring of New Energy and Power Grid Equipment,Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan 430068,China)
出处
《高电压技术》
北大核心
2025年第6期3021-3029,I0034,I0035,共11页
High Voltage Engineering
基金
太阳能高效利用及储能运行控制湖北省重点实验室开放基金(HBSEES202201)。
