摘要
由于新研产品缺乏外场故障数据和历史保修索赔记录,难以开展科学合理的质保成本预测及质保期优化。考虑到产品不同性能参数退化过程之间的相互影响,提出了一种基于Copula理论的双参数退化型新研产品质保期设计与优化方法。根据实验室加速退化试验数据建立产品单参数性能退化模型,采用Copula方法量化退化过程之间的相关性,同时考虑产品在外场的动态运行环境,给出其外场可靠性模型。采用维修改善因子模型量化维修过程中的不完美维修情形,并基于蒙特卡罗仿真计算产品的预计失效数,建立质保成本模型。在此基础上,利用GlickmanBerger模型量化质保期对产品销售量的影响,构建以制造商利润最大化为目标的质保期优化模型。以某型电子组件为例,开展产品质保期设计优化与敏感性分析,验证了模型的有效性和适用性。
Due to the lack of outfield failure data and historical warranty claim records of new products,it is difficult to carry out scientific and reasonable warranty cost prediction and warranty period optimization.Considering the interaction between the degradation processes of different product performance parameters,this paper proposed a method for the design and optimization of the warranty period of new products with two-parameter degradation based on Copula theory.Firstly,a single parameter performance degradation model was established according to the laboratory accelerated degradation test data.Copula theory was used to quantify the correlation between degradation processes.In addition,the outfield reliability model was given by quantifying the dynamic operating environment of the outfield.Secondly,the maintenance improvement factor model was used to quantify the imperfect maintenance situation in the process of maintenance,and the Monte Carlo simulation was employed to calculate the predicted number of product failures.Moreover,the warranty cost model was established.Then,the Glickman-Berger model was used to quantify the impact of the warranty period on product sales,and an optimization model of the warranty period was constructed to maximize the manufacturer’s profit.Finally,by taking a certain type of electronic component as an example,the design and optimization of the warranty period of products and sensitivity analysis were carried out to verify the validity and applicability of the model.
作者
高帅
李艳宏
孙富强
GAO Shuai;LI Yanhong;SUN Fuqiang(School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Science&Technology on Reliability and Environmental Engineering Laboratory,Beijing 100191,China;AECC Commercial Aircraft Engine Co.,Ltd,Shanghai 200241,China)
出处
《北京航空航天大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期2137-2147,共11页
Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
基金
重点实验室稳定支持项目(WDZC20220101)。
关键词
新研产品
双参数退化
COPULA函数
加速退化试验
质保期
敏感性分析
new product
two-parameter degradation
Copula function
accelerated degradation test
warranty period
sensitivity analysis
