摘要
牵引系统作为城市轨道交通列车的核心,其可靠性对保障列车的运行安全具有重要意义。针对牵引系统结构复杂且失效模式多样的问题,开展可靠性评估与寿命预测研究。着重围绕牵引系统中的关键元件:牵引电机和绝缘栅双极晶体管(IGBT),构建牵引电机退磁故障和IGBT键合线失效的性能退化模型,采用融合失效机理的维纳过程描述2个元件的性能退化过程,并采用Copula函数描述两者的相关性。对于离线可靠性评估,采用贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法进行未知参数估计;对于在线剩余使用寿命预测,采用贝叶斯与期望最大相融合的算法更新模型中的未知参数。基于牵引系统的性能退化试验数据,验证所提模型和算法,结果表明:考虑牵引电机和IGBT 2个元件相关的可靠性模型能够精准实现可靠性评估,采用贝叶斯与期望最大相融合的参数更新算法可有效提升寿命预测精度。
The traction system,serving as the power core of urban rail transit trains,plays a crucial role in ensuring the safe operation of the trains.Reliability assessment and lifespan prediction are investigated in order to tackle the difficulties brought about by the traction system’s intricate structure and numerous failure types.The physics of failure model for motor demagnetization and insulated gate bipolar transistor(IGBT)are constructed.The degradation processes for those performance indicators are described by the Wiener process fusing failure mechanism while considering unit-to-unit variability.The Copula function is used to describe the dependent relationship between performance indicators.As for off-line parameter estimation,the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method estimates unknown parameters.As for online remaining useful life prediction,the algorithm combining Bayesian and expectation-maximization is implemented to update unknown parameters.The proposed model and algorithm are validated by the degradation data of the traction system.The results indicate that the reliability model considering the dependent relationship between the motor and IGBT improves the accuracy of reliability assessment.The remaining useful life prediction accuracy is improved by the parameter updating approach that combines Bayesian and expectation-maximization.
作者
田贵双
王少萍
石健
TIAN Guishuang;WANG Shaoping;SHI Jian(School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)
出处
《北京航空航天大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期2081-2090,共10页
Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
基金
北京市自然科学基金-丰台轨道交通前沿研究联合基金(L221008)。
