摘要
在当前全球经济形势复杂多变、国内经济面临多重挑战的背景下,保持CPI平稳运行对于推动经济回升向好具有重要意义。本文梳理了2024年CPI的运行情况及其主要特点,结合粮菜价格走势、“两新”政策加力扩围效应、服务类消费较快增长、房地产市场一揽子政策效应等因素,分析并研判2025年的CPI走势。研究显示:(1)2024年CPI同比上涨0.2%,呈现“止跌转涨、低位运行”态势,食品价格下降和服务类价格涨幅收窄是主要拖累因素;(2)预计2025年CPI同比上涨2%左右,粮食和蔬菜价格上涨、“两新”政策效应显现、房地产市场政策逐步发力、降准降息等因素是推动CPI回升的主要动力。基于上述分析,从提振城乡居民消费、推动产业升级、促进房地产市场回稳、加强市场预期引导等方面提出政策建议,旨在为政策制定者提供参考,助力经济平稳健康发展。
Amid the current complex and volatile global economic environment and multiple challenges faced by the domestic economy,maintaining stable CPI(Consumer Price Index)performance is crucial to promoting economic recovery and improvement.This paper reviews the performance and main characteristics of the CPI in 2024,and analyzes and forecasts the CPI trend for 2025 by considering factors such as trends in grain and vegetable prices,the expanded impact of the“Two New”policies,rapid growth in service consumption,and the comprehensive policy effects in the real estate market.The study shows that:(1)In 2024,the CPI rose by 0.2%year-on-year,exhibiting a pattern of“bottoming out and turning upward,operating at a low level”,with declines in food prices and narrowing increases in service prices being the main drag factors;(2)It is expected that the CPI will rise by about 2%year-on-year in 2025,driven mainly by rising grain and vegetable prices,the effects of the“Two New”policies,the gradual strengthening of real estate market policies,and factors such as reserve requirement ratio(RRR)cuts and interest rate reductions.Based on this analysis,policy recommendations are put forward from perspectives including boosting urban and rural resident consumption,promoting industrial upgrading,stabilizing the real estate market,and strengthening market expectation guidance,aiming to provide reference for policymakers and support steady and healthy economic development.
作者
王双进
林芳铭
孙淑敏
WANG Shuangjin;LIN Fangming;SUN Shumin(School of Management,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134;School of Accounting,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134)
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2025年第2期19-24,99,共7页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
天津科技计划发展战略项目“天津市科技服务业能级提升路径与发展对策研究”(24ZLRKZL00150)
教育部春晖计划项目“开放合作范式下涉农科技企业数字化协同创新机制研究”(HZKY20220605)
天津市教委社科重大项目“双碳战略驱动天津市传统产业转型升级的机制与政策研究”(2023JWZD32)
