摘要
为了识别装配式建筑施工的关键安全风险因素,并探究安全风险因素间的耦合机制,构建改进N-K模型对装配式建筑施工安全风险进行耦合分析。首先,在现场访谈、专家咨询、政策整理及文献分析的基础上,利用扎根理论建立安全风险指标体系;其次,运用决策试验与评估实验法(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, DEMATEL)与熵权法计算主客观权重,基于博弈论组合赋权计算指标综合权重,并以权重替代传统耦合模型中的概率;最后,运用工程实例论证改进N-K模型在装配式建筑施工安全风险因素耦合分析中的适用性及可靠性。结果表明,人员安全意识、现场施工安全管理水平及人员不规范行为是关键安全风险因素,人员因素与管理因素对风险耦合影响较大且五重风险因素的耦合值最大,应重点管控关键安全风险因素,避免多因素风险耦合。
To identify the key safety risk factors in prefabricated construction and explore the coupling mechanism between these factors,an improved N-K model is developed for coupling analysis.First,based on on-site interviews,expert consultations,policy organization,and literature analysis,a safety risk indicator system is established using grounded theory.This system addresses five key aspects:personnel,technology,management,equipment,and environment.Secondly,the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method and the entropy weight method are used to calculate both subjective and objective weights.Game theory is then introduced to compute the comprehensive weights of indicators through combination weighting.Based on the centrality ranking derived from the DEMATEL method,the key safety risk factors in the secondary indicators are identified.Next,based on the risk coupling mechanism,an improved N-K model is constructed.In this model,the probability values typically derived from statistical accident cases in traditional coupling models are replaced with the comprehensive weights of secondary indicators.The model then calculates the risk coupling information interaction values between each primary indicator.Finally,engineering examples are used to demonstrate the applicability and reliability of the improved N-K model in the coupling analysis of safety risk factors in prefabricated construction.The results show that key safety risk factors include personnel safety awareness,on-site construction safety management levels,and non-standard behaviors of personnel.The coupling T-value of risks associated with personnel and management factors is relatively high,indicating that these factors significantly impact the coupling of various risk elements.Furthermore,an increase in the number of risk coupling factors correlates with a higher value of risk coupling interaction information,which increases the likelihood of safety accidents occurring.Relevant measures should be implemented to focus on controlling key safety risk factors and to prevent the coupling of multiple risk factors.The findings of this research offer valuable insights for further analyzing the coupling mechanism of safety risk factors in prefabricated construction.
作者
杨文安
徐碧琴
言雨欣
YANG Wenan;XU Biqin;YAN Yuxin(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期2092-2103,共12页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2021JJ30744)。
关键词
安全工程
装配式建筑
改进N-K模型
博弈论
风险耦合
safety engineering
prefabricated building
improved N-K model
game theory
risk coupling
