摘要
为解决多风险因素耦合作用对旧工业建筑安全施工改造项目的影响,发现并控制关键风险因素,防止旧工业建筑施工改造过程中安全事故发生。利用文本分析法解析2010—2024年间130起国内各地区旧工业建筑改造项目施工安全事故报告,并提炼出5种影响旧工业建筑施工安全的重要风险因素,包括管理、旧工业建筑物、人员、设备及材料、环境。融合N-K模型与(social network analysis,SNA)SNA模型,形成新的风险耦合分析框架,为探究旧工业建筑施工改造的风险耦合性提供工具。首先,利用N-K模型对2010—2024年旧工业建筑施工改造事故案例原因进行耦合分析,计算各一级风险的耦合值;其次,利用SNA模型分析风险网络因素的中心度和可达性,得到系统网络中各风险因素的关键性评价;最后,将N-K模型的风险耦合值与SNA模型的出度接近中心度进行耦合因素修正,确定最终旧工业建筑施工改造项目的关键风险因素。结果显示:风险耦合值大小基本与参与耦合的风险因素数成正比,参与耦合因素越多,风险耦合值越大则施工风险越大;人员的不安全因素诱发管−物−人−设多风险耦合能力较强;强风、暴风雨、安全管理制度、施工人员专业素养不足是施工事故的关键风险因素,应采取相应措施重点防范。研究结果识别出旧工业建筑施工改造阶段中关键的风险因素,可为该类改造工程风险决策提供参考。
To eliminate the coupling effects of multiple risk factors on the construction and renovation projects of old industrial buildings,the key risk factors were identified and controlled to prevent accidents in the construction and renovation process of old industrial buildings.The text analysis method was used to analyze 130 reports about safety accidents of old industrial building renovation projects in various regions of China during 2010―2024.Five major risk factors were presented,which could affect the construction safety of old industrial buildings,including management,old industrial buildings,personnel,equipment and materials,and environment.The N-K model and SNA model were integrated to form a new risk coupling analysis framework,which could provide a tool for exploring the risk coupling of old industrial buildings.Firstly,the N-K model was applied to analyze the causes of the old industrial building construction renovation accidents from 2010 to 2024,and the coupling values of each level of risk were calculated.Secondly,the SNA model was used to analyze the centrality and accessibility of risk network factors,and the critical evaluation of each risk factor in the system network was obtained.Finally,the coupling factors of N-K model and SNA model were modified to determine the key risk factors of the old industrial building construction renovation projects.The results show that the risk coupling value is basically proportional to the number of risk factors involved in coupling.The more coupling factors involved,the greater the risk coupling value is,the greater the construction risk is.The unsafe factors of personnel induce strong coupling ability of tube-object-man-device multiple risks.Strong wind,storm,safety management system and lack of professional quality of construction personnel are the key risk factors of construction accidents,and corresponding measures should be taken accordingly.The research results can identify the key risk factors in the reconstruction stage of old industrial buildings,which can provide reference for the risk decision-making of similar reconstruction projects.
作者
骆明真
李红星
LUO Mingzhen;LI Hongxing(School of Economics and Management,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin 300380,China)
出处
《铁道科学与工程学报》
北大核心
2025年第5期2293-2302,共10页
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering
基金
天津市教育工作重点调研课题(JYDY-20241042)
天津市社科界“十百千”主题调研项目。
