摘要
世界能源结构正加速向绿色低碳转型,天然气是绿色低碳能源的典型代表,将持续在能源结构转型中发挥关键作用。为进一步明确中国天然气的开发形式与发展远景,总结了全球天然气发展当前所具有的主要特征,在此基础上重点剖析了国内最大的天然气生产企业中石油的天然气开发历程、资源现状及勘探开发潜力,最后采用重点解剖、情景分析与整体预测的方法,分析和展望了全国天然气发展远景。研究结果表明:①中国天然气探明率整体偏低,预测2060年常规气、致密气、页岩气及煤层(岩)气4类天然气的新增天然气探明储量可达到目前天然气探明储量的近2倍,天然气资源探明率的持续提升是天然气长期发展的根基;②2060年新增天然气经济可采储量可达目前剩余经济可采储量的近2.5倍,采收率的持续提高是天然气长期稳产的关键;③2030年中国天然气产量可上产至3000×10^(8)m^(3)以上,至2045年产量可达到3750×10^(8)m^(3),并可持续稳产至2060年;④全球天然气目前主要发展特征为能源结构绿色低碳化支撑、储产量非均衡分布、非常规成为供应主力、需求将保持增长等。结论认为,所提出的目标和方向分析较为客观和合理,可以为天然气发展宏观政策制定、天然气发展研究等提供借鉴和参考,也可为中国天然气长期规划发展、中国能源结构分析提供重要参考。
As the global energy structure transits faster towards green and low-carbon energy sources,natural gas,as a representative lowcarbon green energy source,will play a crucial role continuously in the transition process.In order to further clarify the situations and prospects of natural gas development in China,this paper summarizes the current characteristics of global natural gas development.Then,the natural gas development history of CNPC(China's largest natural gas producer),resource status,and exploration and development potential in China are dissected.Finally,the nationwide natural gas development prospects are analyzed and forecast by means of detailed case analysis,scenario analysis and overall forecasting.The following research results are obtained.First,the natural gas resources across China are lowly proved.It is predicted that the newly proven reserves of conventional gas,tight gas,shale gas and coalbed methane(coalrock gas)will be nearly twice the current proven reserves of natural gas by 2060.Improving the proportion of proven natural gas reserves is fundamental for the long-term development of natural gas.Second,the new economically recoverable reserves of natural gas by 2060 can reach nearly 2.5 times the current remaining economically recoverable reserves.The continuous improvement of natural gas recovery is crucial to the long-term stable production of natural gas.Third,China's natural gas production will exceed 3000×10^(8)m^(3) by 2030,reaching 3750×10^(8)m^(3) in 2045,and can remain stable until 2060.Fourth,the present global natural gas development is characterized by the green and low-carbon support of energy structure,the uneven distribution of reserves and production,unconventional resources being the principal supply,and constrant demand growth.In conclusion,the proposed target and direction analysis is objective and reasonable,and can provide reference for preparing macroscopic policies of natural gas development,studying natural gas development,planning long-term natural gas development in China and analyzing China's energy structure.
作者
贾爱林
王国亭
李易隆
JIA Ailin;WANG Guoting;LI Yilong(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《天然气工业》
北大核心
2025年第5期31-42,共12页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“老气田‘压舱石工程’关键技术研究与示范”(编号:2023YQX103)
中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“致密砂岩气藏提高采收率关键技术研究”(编号:2023ZZ25)。
关键词
世界天然气
能源结构转型
绿色低碳
中国天然气
开发形势
发展远景
Global natural gas
Energy structure transition
Green and low-carbon
Natural gas in China
Development situation
Development prospect
