摘要
四川盆地天然气资源丰富,其开发利用共建共享是保障国家能源安全、支撑区域经济发展、推动能源消费结构转型和助力实现“双碳”目标的必由之路与核心战略。为了给该盆地天然气产业可持续、高质量发展提供理论参考和实践指导,在分析地方政府、油气企业、消费者三大利益主体及交互关系的基础上,解构共建共享假设情境,构建演化博弈矩阵并开展策略稳定性分析。研究结果表明:①四川盆地天然气资源开发利用共建共享与地方政府、油气企业、消费者三方主体的决策行为密切相关,其实现需要各参与方在长期合作的前提下进行多次博弈并遴选最优策略;②地方政府适度增加共建共享收益有助于激励油气企业积极参与,政策支持力度亦对其正向影响明显,地方政府可以选择在政策扶助和违约惩罚间寻求均衡点;③安全生产和绿色生产在油气企业参与共建共享的过程中意义重大,将大幅提升其对生态环境和自身声誉的保护力度;④消费者的强追随性使其在参与共建共享时受地方政府和油气企业的强烈影响,特别是用气企业和当地居民的利益诉求存在差异化特征,地方政府和油气企业可以酌情分别对此予以合理补偿。结论认为:地方政府、油气企业、消费者亟需深化协同合作,此举将有助于四川盆地天然气资源长期、高效、绿色开发;地方政府发挥牵头作用,增加共享收益、优化利益分配、强化政策支持,油气企业要坚持安全生产和绿色发展并重,共同保障民生生态与消费者合法权益。
Sichuan Basin is rich in natural-gas resources whose exploitation co-construction and sharing are the only way and core strategy to ensure China's energy security,support regional economic growth,advance structural transformation of energy consumption,and assist in achieving the dualcarbon goal.Therefore,after analyzing three major stakeholders,including local government,petroleum enterprises,and consumers,and their links,hypothetical scenarios were deconstructed for the co-construction and sharing,an evolutionary game matrix was set up,and strategic stability was studied in an effort to offer theoretical reference and practical guidance on the natural-gas industry in sustainable and quality development in this basin.Results show that(i)the co-construction and sharing of natural-gas resource exploitation in Sichuan Basin are closely related to decision-making behaviors of these three stakeholders,meanwhile need every participant in multiple games and select the best tactic under the premise of long-term cooperation;(ii)local government can stimulate oil and gas enterprises in active participation by increasing benefits of co-construction and sharing moderately,and policy support also has a positive effect apparently.The government shall seek a balance between policy support and default penalty;(iii)for enterprises,safe and green production are essential in the process of their participating in the co-construction and sharing,and will greatly enhance efforts to protect both ecological environment and their own reputation;and(iv)for consumers,strong followership makes them heavily affected by local government and enterprises when they participate in the co-construction and sharing,specially gas-consuming enterprises and local residents are different in interests and demands,so not only the government but enterprises shall compensate them respectively.In conclusion,these major stakeholders shall cooperate in-depth to strengthen gas resources in Sichuan Basin in the long-term,efficient and green development.Additionally,local government should play a leading role to increase sharing benefits,optimize benefit distribution,and boost policy support.Petroleum enterprises should adhere to the equal importance of safe production and green development.Both of them should jointly safeguard the livelihood ecology as well as the legitimate rights and interests of consumers.
作者
周娟
李曦
辜穗
杨铎
唐启桓
余曦曦
邹曦
ZHOU Juan;LI Xi;GU Sui;YANG Duo;TANG Qiheng;YU Xixi;ZOU Xi(Natural Gas Economic Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;CDB Operating Company,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Dazhou,Sichuan 635000,China;Shanghai Shipping,Sinopec Offshore Oilfield Services Company,Shanghai 201208,China;Shale Gas Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;Sichuan Huayou Group Corporation Limited,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China)
出处
《天然气技术与经济》
2025年第6期1-11,共11页
Natural Gas Technology and Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目“‘一带一路’能源高质量合作的推进策略与实现”(编号:24XGJ002)
中国石油天然气集团有限公司软科学研究课题“新质生产力推动现代天然气产业体系建设的机理与路径研究”(编号:中油研20250102-1)
中国石油西南油气田公司科研项目“西南油气田公司高质量发展经营管理转型升级研究”(编号:2025D010-02)。
关键词
四川盆地
天然气资源
开发利用
共建共享
演化博弈
地方政府
油气企业
Sichuan Basin
Natural-gas resource
Exploitation
Co-construction and sharing
Evolutionary game
Local government
Petroleum enterprise
