摘要
人口老龄化逐步加深已经成为中国人口结构变化的重要趋势,人口老龄化与中国货物出口规模增长之间的关系是需要研究的现实问题。首先,为了明晰人口老龄化与货物出口规模增长之间的理论关系,要分析人口老龄化影响货物出口规模增长的传导机制,包括劳动力成本效应、全要素生产率效应、规模经济效应、出口产业转型升级效应。其次,应用省级面板数据和面板向量自回归模型,实证分析了人口老龄化对中国货物出口规模增长的现实影响。实证分析的结果表明:人口老龄化对中国货物出口规模增长具有负向影响,人口老龄化是中国货物出口规模增长的格兰杰原因。最后,从加快提升人口质量与人力资本水平、重塑货物出口贸易发展新动能、促进制造业与生产性服务业融合发展、加快货物贸易数字化转型步伐、积极发展特色产业集群和提升劳动密集型产业出口竞争力等视角,提出应对人口老龄化对中国货物出口规模增长冲击的相关对策,以促进中国货物出口贸易平稳持续发展。
The accelerating trend of population aging has become a significant demographic shift in China,posing urgent challenges to the growth of its goods export sector.To clarify the theoretical link between population aging and goods export growth,this paper explores the transmission mechanisms involved-namely,labor cost effects,total factor productivity,economies of scale,and industrial transformation and upgrading in the export sector.Using provincial panel data and a panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model,the study empirically investigates the impact of population aging on the growth of China's goods exports.Empirical results indicate that population aging exerts a negative effect on the growth of goods exports and serves as a Granger cause in this context.Finally,the paper offers several countermeasures to mitigate the adverse effects of population aging.These include improving population quality and human capital,fostering new drivers of export growth,promoting integration between manufacturing and producer services,accelerating the digital transformation of trade,developing characteristic industrial clusters,and enhancing the competitiveness of labor-intensive exports.These strategies aim to ensure the steady and sustainable development of China's goods export sector.
作者
胡飞
杨杰
HU Fei;YANG Jie(School of International Trade and Economics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)
出处
《内蒙古民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》
2025年第3期57-65,共9页
Journal of Inner Mongolia Minzu University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition
基金
安徽省高等学校科学研究重点项目“人口老龄化对经济高质量发展的影响效应评估、机制识别与对策研究”(项目编号:2023AH050220)的阶段性成果。
