摘要
目的分析1990—2021年中国儿童期哮喘疾病负担变化趋势,并预测2022—2035年疾病负担,为中国制定儿童哮喘防控措施提供科学依据。方法基于全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库,提取1990—2021年中国0~14岁儿童哮喘患病人数、年龄标化患病率、失能调整生命年(DALYs)、年龄标化DALYs率及其95%不确定区间(UI)。通过估算各参数的年度百分比变化(EAPC)及其95%置信区间(CI)评估疾病负担的时间变化趋势。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型预测2022—2035年中国0~14岁儿童哮喘疾病负担。结果2021年,中国0~14岁儿童哮喘患病人数为936.83(95%UI=641.07~1402.61)万例,DALYs为38.79(95%UI=21.61~66.88)万人年。与1990年相比,2021年中国0~14岁儿童哮喘患病人数和DALYs分别下降37.28%和52.55%,年龄标化患病率和DALYs率均呈下降趋势[EAPC(95%CI)分别为-0.70%(-1.26%~-0.13%)和-1.71%(-2.32%~-1.10%)]。1990—2021年,男童哮喘患病人数、年龄标化患病率、DALYs和年龄标化DALYs率均高于女童,5~9岁儿童哮喘疾病负担高于其他年龄段。BAPC模型预测显示,2022—2035年中国儿童哮喘患病人数、DALYs均呈下降趋势,2035年分别为675.96万例和22.84万人年;而年龄标化患病率、年龄标化DALYs率2035年分别上升为5143.35/10万和173.75/10万。结论1990—2021年中国0~14岁儿童哮喘疾病负担有所下降,但患病率仍处于较高水平;预测2022—2035年中国0~14岁儿童哮喘疾病负担有所下降,但其患病率、DALYs率仍升高。需持续加强防控措施并实施有针对性的干预措施,以进一步降低儿童哮喘疾病负担。
Objective To investigate the trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma in China from 1990 to 2021 and to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2035,so as to provide insights into formulation of the control interventions for childhood asthma in China.Methods The prevalent case,age-standard prevalence,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)and age-standard DALYs rate of children with asthma at ages of 0 to 14 years and their 95%uncertainty interval(UI)in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database.The temporal trends in the disease burden of childhood asthma were evaluated with estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)and its 95%confidence interval(CI),and the disease burden due to asthma was projected among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China using a Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model from 2022 to 2035.Results There were 9.3683 million(95%UI=6.4107 million to 14.0261 million)prevalent cases of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China in 2021,contributing to 0.3879 million(95%UI=0.2161 million to 0.6688 million)DALYs loss.The prevalent cases and DALYs of asthma decreased by 37.28%and 52.55%among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China in 2021 compared with 1990,and the age-standardized prevalence[EAPC=-0.70%,95%CI=-1.26%to-0.13%)]and DALY rates[EAPC=-1.71%,95%CI=-2.32%to-1.10%)]also appeared a tendency towards a decline.From 1990 to 2021,the prevalent cases,prevalence,DALYs and DALYs rate of asthma were all higher among male children than among female children,and the disease burden of asthma was higher among children at ages of 5 to 9 years than at other age groups.BAPC model predicted a decline in both prevalent cases and DALYs of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 2022 to 2035,with 6.7596 million prevalent cases and DALYs of 0.2284 million person-years in 2035,while the prevalence and DALYs rates were projected to rise to 5143.35/105 and 173.75/105 in 2035.Conclusions Despite a reduction in the disease burden of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 1990 to 2021,the prevalence remained high.The disease burden due to asthma is projected to appear a decline among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 2022 to 2035;however,the prevalence and DALYs rates still rise.Intensified control measures and targeted interventions are required to reduce the disease burden of childhood asthma.
作者
臧潇
邹言峥
陶璐秋
姜尚德
梅伟
马连政
谭高
刘涛
刘小利
洪善超
汪伟
ZANG Xiao;ZOU Yanzheng;TAO Luqiu;JIANG Shangde;MEI Wei;MA Lianzheng;TAN Gao;LIU Tao;LIU Xiaoli;HONG Shanchao;WANG Wei(School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing(211166),Jiangsu Province,China;不详)
出处
《中国学校卫生》
北大核心
2025年第4期573-578,共6页
Chinese Journal of School Health
基金
江苏省无锡市“双百”中青年医疗卫生后备拔尖人才项目(HB2023024)
军队临床培育专科项目。
关键词
哮喘
症状负担
患病率
儿童
中国
Asthma
Symptom burden
Prevalence
Child
China
