摘要
通过分析铝-镓间的主金属生产机制、伴生金属生产机制、主伴生矿产市场联动机制,从资源、技术、市场、环境、需求等角度剖析中国镓资源可持续供给和铝减排协同发展的影响因素,并构建系统动力学仿真模型,研究不同供需情景和措施情景下中国镓资源可持续供给能力和铝减排协同发展的保障路径。当中国原铝产业不受碳排放目标约束或回收水平较高时,在既定需求情景和清洁能源发展需求情景下,中国镓资源都具有良好的可持续供给能力;反之,可持续供给能力将下降。在保障中国镓资源可持续供给的路径选择上,如果采取单项措施,提升水电铝占比最为有效;如果采取组合措施,在提高水电铝占比的同时提高粗镓提取率,最为有效。
By analyzing the main metal production mechanism,by-product metal production mechanism and main-byproduct mineral market linkage mechanism between aluminum and gallium,this paper anatomizes the influencing factors of the collaborative development of the gallium resources sustainable supply and China aluminum emission reduction from the perspectives of resources,technology,market,environment and demand,and constructs a system dynamics simulation model to study the guarantee path of collaborative development of gallium sustainable supply capacity and China aluminum emission reduction under different supply and demand scenarios and measures scenarios.When China’s primary aluminum industry is not constrained by the carbon emission target or the recycling level is high,China's gallium resource has a good sustainable supply capacity under the given demand scenario and the clean energy development demand scenario,otherwise,the sustainable supply capacity will decline.In terms of the path selection to ensure the China gallium resources sustainable supply,if a single measure is taken,it is the most effective to increase the proportion of hydropower aluminum.If a combination of measures is taken,it is most effective to increase the crude gallium extraction rate while increasing the proportion of hydropower aluminum.
作者
邵留国
李漪瑶
蓝婷婷
SHAO Liuguo;LI Yiyao;LAN Tingting(School of Business,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China;Institute of Metal Resources Strategy,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)
出处
《中南大学学报(社会科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第3期138-153,共16页
Journal of Central South University:Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“地缘政治突发事件对我国战略性矿产资源产业链供应安全影响的机理和对策研究”(22&ZD098)。
关键词
战略性矿产
资源安全
伴生生产机制
碳减排
镓
strategic minerals
resource security
by-product production mechanism
carbon reduction
gallium
