摘要
在节能减排绿色经济发展背景下,原铝产业面临供给侧结构性改革的关键时期。通过对中国原铝价格进行剖析,采用2019年1月至2022年4月中国原铝价格的日度和月度数据,严谨地分析了铝价波动变化,分别从供求、经济增长和货币金融的角度出发对影响价格显著性进行回归分析,利用时间序列模型对原铝20月的价格走势进行了预测。通过实证分析,得出以下结论:①供求状况是影响原铝价格的直接因素,也是最基础的因素,是对原铝价格的短期分析与预测的出发点。②产量和实际消费量为供求状况的主要参考指标,中美GDP指数代表的经济增长情况对短期内原铝价格走势影响不显著,原铝市场逐渐形成了实体供需为基础、金融供需为外在的新价格形成机制。③双碳背景下中国原铝价格在20个月内总体仍呈上涨趋势。当前,国内对铝行业的供求变化对铝价波动的定量分析尚显不足,本文的研究结果对于铝相关产业的稳定发展和国家节能减排目标之间的平衡具有重大意义。
Against the backdrop of green economy development based on energy conservation and emission reduction,the primary aluminum industry is facing a critical period of supply side structural reform.By analyzing the prices of primary aluminum in China,the daily and monthly data of China's primary aluminum prices from January 2019 to April 2022 were used to rigorously analyze the fluctuations in aluminum prices.Regression analysis was conducted from the perspectives of supply and demand,economic growth,and monetary finance to determine the significance of the impact on prices.The time series model was used to predict the 20-month price trend of primary aluminum.Through empirical analysis,the following conclusions can be made:①The supply and demand situation is a direct and fundamental factor affecting the price of primary aluminum,which is a starting point for short-term analysis and prediction of primary aluminum prices.②Production and actual consumption are the main reference indicators for the supply and demand situation.The economic growth represented by China and America GDP index does not have a significant impact on the short-term trend of primary aluminum prices.The primary aluminum market has gradually formed a new price formation mechanism based on physical supply and demand,as well as the external financial supply and demand;③Under the dual carbon background,the price of primary aluminum in China is still showing an overall upward trend within 20 months.At present,the quantitative analysis on the impact of supply and demand changes on aluminum price fluctuations in the domestic aluminum industry is still insufficient.The research results of this paper are of great significance for the stable development of aluminum-related industries,as well as the balance between national energy conservation and emission reduction targets.
作者
崔博
谭紫珺
Cui Bo;Tan Zijun(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;School of Economics and Finance,Shanghai International Studies University,Shanghai 201620,China)
出处
《轻金属》
北大核心
2023年第7期1-7,12,共8页
Light Metals
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金NK2022001,NZ2023003
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目NZ2023003
南京航空航天大学研究生教育教学改革项目2022YJXGG27
本科教育教学改革研究重点项目2021JG0907Z。
关键词
双碳目标
中国原铝价格
供求状况
时间序列
dual carbon goals
China's primary aluminum prices
supply and demand conditions
time series
