摘要
为了从贸易成本视角下研究中国与美国的大市场效应及其差异,借助母国市场效应工具,研究提出,国家经济规模与出口之间存在倒U型关系、企业异质性的双向空间排序效应、比较优势与大市场效应驱动出口的主导性等假说。利用2001—2021年中国和美国分别向世界125个贸易伙伴双边贸易数据,借助异质性随机前沿引力模型,研究发现,在剔除贸易非效率项的影响下,美国的大市场效应驱动了进口扩大,而我国并未显著地取得任何类型的大市场效应,出口的扩大来自偏向资本要素的比较优势。通过分位数回归,研究发现,特朗普政府发动的中美贸易加征关税行为,将美国大市场驱动的进口效应扭转为出口效应,且出口效率得到加强,而中国转向了规模较低或效率较低商品的出口,以上均构成了未来中美参与国际分工的差异化路径,缓解了彼此的贸易摩擦。研究表明,中美均为全球化的受益者,二者在资本品和中间品进出口上形成产业链合作关系,仅在消费品上构成竞争关系。研究建议,加强对内监管与对外协调能力、防范经济波动性风险、持续扩大多元化贸易伙伴与出口,重视中小企业地方化和多样化。
To study the big market effects in China and the United States from the perspective of trade costs and their differences,this study adopts the home market effect framework and proposes several hypotheses:an inverted U-shaped relationship between national economic scale and exports;a twosided sorting spatial effect of enterprise heterogeneity;and the dominant roles of comparative advantage and big market effects in driving exports.Using bilateral trade data from China and the U.S.with 125 global trade partners from 2001 to 2021,and applying a heterogeneous stochastic frontier gravity model,the study finds that after excluding the influence of trade inefficiencies the U.S.big market effect drives import expansion,whereas China has not achieved any significant type of big market effect.China s export growth has been primarily driven by its capital-intensive comparative advantage.Quantile regression results show that the additional tariffs imposed during the Trump administration reversed the U.S.big market-driven import effect into an export effect,enhancing export efficiency.In contrast,China shifted toward exporting goods on a smaller scale or with lower efficiency.These dynamics suggest differentiated future pathways for China and the U.S.in global value chains,easing bilateral trade frictions.The study concludes that both China and the U.S.are beneficiaries of globalization,forming complementary industrial chain relationships in capital and intermediate goods trade,while remaining competitors mainly in consumer goods.Policy recommendations include strengthening domestic regulation and international coordination,guarding against economic volatility,diversifying trade partners and sustaining export growth,and emphasizing the localization and diversification of small and medium-sized enterprises.
作者
隋月红
郝丹阳
SUI Yuehong;HAO Danyang(Belt and Road Regional Standardization Research Center,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《长安大学学报(社会科学版)》
2025年第2期48-66,共19页
Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(18BJL102)。
关键词
国际经济与贸易
贸易成本
母国市场效应
异质性随机前沿引力模型
中美大市场
比较优势
international economics and trade
trade cost
home market effect
heterogeneous stochastic frontier gravity model
big market in China and the U.S.
comparative advantage
