人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡问题——基于HS分类商品的实证研究被引量：19

RMB's Exchange Rate and Imbalanced China-US Trade

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摘要本文基于HS分类商品,采用一个修正的国际贸易模型,实证研究发现:进出口收入效应强弱的巨大差异是中美贸易不平衡问题的根源,价格效应的特殊性是中美贸易不平衡问题的重要因素,2005年汇率制度改革对解决中美贸易不平衡问题没有发挥积极作用,贸易结构的变化可以影响中美贸易不平衡。政策含义是:人民币应该对美元小幅度升值,并且积极稳妥地推进人民币汇率形成机制改革,采取一揽子有针对性的政策措施,大力促进中国从美国进口。 Based on HS classified exports and imports, this paper builds a rectified international trade model. Empirical study shows： The large difference between export income effect and import income effect is the cause of imbalanced China- US trade. The special price effect is the important cause of imbalanced China - US trade. In 2005, the reform of RMB＇s tive role on imbalanced China- US trade. exchange rate regime didn＇t play a posi- Upgrade of trade structure influences on imbalanced China- US trade. The conclusion implies in policy： RMB/US exchange rate should appreciate moderately. Chinese government promotes the reform of marketing organism of RMB＇s exchange rate. By a series of policy, China should increase imports from US.

作者黄万阳王维国

机构地区东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院经济计量分析与预测研究中心

出处《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第7期76-90,共15页 Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

关键词汇率中关贸易不平衡 HS分类商品 RMB＇s Exchange Rate Imbalanced China- US Trade HS Classi- fied Exports and Imports

分类号 F832.63 [经济管理—金融学]

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