摘要
[目的]近海风电资源逐渐饱和,深远海风电开发正迎来规模化发展的关键机遇。同时,未来国际航运业亟需低碳转型,对绿色甲醇燃料的现实需求大幅度提升,对此,文章提出了电-碳-氢-醇协同的海上综合能源岛设想。[方法]首先,描绘了电-碳-氢-醇协同的海上综合能源岛形态,并梳理了该形态下的关键技术;其次,构建了电-碳-氢-醇协同的海上综合能源岛容量规划模型,以平准化单位甲醇制取成本最小化为目标,优化各单元的最优容量配置;最后,开展了针对风速、碳价和氧气价格的敏感性分析以及成本压力测试,明确了未来的降本路径。[结果]结果表明:(1)面向典型700 MW的离网型海上漂浮式风电,海上综合能源岛需配置235 MW/470 MWh电化学储能系统与44 t的储氢罐来维持甲醇合成系统的稳定运行,PEM电解槽容量配置为264 MW;(2)当前,海上综合能源岛制取出的绿色甲醇成本为12.36元/kg,高于5.95元/kg市场价格;(3)所研究的海上综合能源岛年产绿色甲醇22.16万t,将支撑大型集装箱甲醇动力船舶运输80万海里,并减少年度二氧化碳排放98万t。[结论]电-碳-氢-醇协同的海上综合能源岛在深远海风电消纳、满足航运业绿色甲醇燃料需求与助力碳减排方面效果显著,未来随着PEM电解槽、漂浮式风电以及直接空气碳捕集技术的迭代更新,其绿色甲醇成本将在2035年实现平价。
[Objective]As nearshore wind resources approach saturation,the development of deep-sea wind power is facing a critical opportunity of scalable growth.Concurrently,the urgent need for low-carbon transformation in international shipping has driven a substantial increase in de-mand for green methanol fuel.In response,this paper proposes the concept of integrated energy islands with electrici-ty-carbon-hydrogen-methanol synergy.[Method]First,this paper delineated the form of the integrated energy islands with electricity-carbon-hydrogen-methanol synergy and identified key technologies in the form.Second,a capacity planning model of the integrated energy islands with electrici-ty-carbon-hydrogen-methanol synergy was developed to optimize unit configurations,aiming to minimize the levelized unit cost of methanol production.Finally,sensitivity analyses on wind speed,carbon price,and oxygen price were conducted,alongside cost pres-sure testing,to clarify future cost reduction pathways.[Result]The results show that:(1)For a typical 700 MW off-grid floating offshore wind farm,the integrated energy island requires a 235 MW/470 MWh electrochemical energy storage,44 tons of hydrogen storage tanks,and a 264 MW PEM electrolysis to stabilize opera-tion of methanol synthesis system;(2)The current green methanol production cost is 12.36 CNY/kg,exceeding the market price of 5.95 CNY/kg;(3)The integrated energy island achieves an annual green methanol production of 221.6 kilotons,sufficient to power large methanol-fueled container ships for 800000 nautical miles while reducing CO_(2) emissions by 980 kilotons annually.[Conclusion]Integrated energy islands with electricity-carbon-hydrogenmethanol synergy demonstrate significant effect in consuming deep-sea wind power,meeting maritime green methanol demand,and assisting in carbon emission reduction.With anticipated technological advance-ments in PEM electrolysis cell,floating wind turbines,and direct air carbon capture,green methanol production is projected to achieve cost parity by 2035.
作者
许传博
李沛遥
张文座
李庆伟
韦艳
XU Chuanbo;LI Peiyao;ZHANG Wenzuo;LI Qingwei;WEI Yan(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development,Beijing 102206,China;Office of Discipline Construction,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《南方能源建设》
2025年第3期52-66,共15页
Southern Energy Construction
基金
国家自然科学基金联合基金重点项目“电-氢-碳融合的综合能源系统长周期平衡机理与规划方法”(U23B20124)
国家自然科学基金青年项目“面向新型能源体系的氢储能资源协同优化配置及激励机制研究”(72303063)。
关键词
电-碳-氢-醇协同
海上能源岛
容量规划
平准化单位甲醇制取成本
Electricity-Carbon-Hydrogen-Methanol Synergy
Offshore Energy Island
Capacity Planning
Levelized Cost of Methanol
