摘要
由于埋地天然气管道在复杂的运行环境下其退化状态具有动态转移性,为避免天然气管道泄漏导致安全事故发生,提出一种基于Gamma和时变Markov模型的管道剩余寿命预测方法。首先采用连续随机过程Gamma描述管道腐蚀退化过程;其次将连续随机过程划分状态空间后利用Markov理论建立剩余寿命预测模型;为适应天然气管道的实际退化过程,引入时变转移概率矩阵解决了转移概率固定的问题;最后通过实例验证并在MATLAB中仿真,将仿真拟合值与实际值对比。结果表明:基于Gamma和时变Markov结合模型的方法预测精度高,预测值比实际寿命小,更好地保障了天然气管道的安全运行。
Due to the dynamic transfer of the degradation state of buried natural gas pipelines under complex operating environment,a pipeline residual life prediction method based on Gamma and time-varying Markov model was proposed to avoid the occurrence of safety accidents caused by natural gas pipeline leakage.Firstly,the continuous stochastic process Gamma was used to describe the pipeline corrosion degradation process.Secondly,this continuous stochastic process is divided into state space and the residual life prediction model is established by Markov theory.In order to adapt to the actual degradation process of natural gas pipeline,the time-varying transfer probability matrix is introduced to solve the problem of fixed transfer probability.Finally,through the example verification and simulation in MATLAB,the simulation fitting value is compared with the actual value.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the method based on Gamma and time-varying Markov model is high,the predicted value is smaller than the actual life,and the safe operation of natural gas pipeline is better guaranteed.
作者
何莹
董增寿
郑宇佳
HE Ying;DONG Zeng-shou;ZHENG Yu-jia(School of Electronic And Information Engineering,Taiyuan University of Science and Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China;School of Applied Science,Taiyuan University of Science and Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)
出处
《太原科技大学学报》
2025年第2期139-144,151,共7页
Journal of Taiyuan University of Science and Technology
基金
山西省留学回国人员科技活动择优资助项目(20220029)
山西省重点研发计划(201903D321012)。
